My question is, how loyal is the PLA to Xi personally? Xi’s enemies (who are also communist party members) want to return things to the way things were before 2016— no lockdowns, no saber rattling with Taiwan, USA, Japan, etc, no hardcore commie BS. A lot of people inside and out of the party were happy with the prosperity, corruption, and relative freedom.
Nothing that Xi is doing has benefitted either the party, the oligarchs, or the common coolies. He seems to be stuck on stupid.
There will be no invasion of Taiwan. Xi has seen what has happened to Putin and Russia. Xi knows that if his combat inexperienced army of one child soldiers, his untested ships, planes and munitions failed to surmount 90 miles of open ocean and a determined resistance, taking heavy casualties, the failure would be followed by protests that would be impossible to control. Not only would Xi, his sycophants and family be terminated but the outraged PLA might overthrow the communist party and form a military dictatorship similar to Pinochet’s in Chile or Sukarno’s in Indonesia.
It could be Hu/Jiang factions are able to oust Xi.
It’s all “could” right now.
A lot of things could happen.
Xi is a pretty good analogue of Stalin. Stalin reasserted Party control and the Terror to end a period of relative(!) freedom and rising prosperity. He did not get popular blowback, though, because of the Terror, the random arrest and killing of millions. No individual trusted any other.
Like the NAZI party, the communist party is adept at thuggery.