So was MacGregor just completely unaware of when winter hits Ukraine when he said October, then November, then December...? If so, then his analysis isn’t worth a warm bucket of spit.
A slide rule over the varying times of solidifying ground— no need to know exactly when it begins...just that the conditions will persist. Then what has to happen is the conscripts of incompetent hordes of Russians have to... move. Know any tea leaf readers who get it right every single time? Our point and click “you want fries with that” mentality has produced such expectation. He is but one leaf reader (among many) who share the thought of how it may go.
And that is worth what it is- a tad more than a bucket of saliva.