This presumes that voters have the same affinity for Trump that they did in 2016 and even 2020. I don’t think that’s the case anymore. The tide could always change, but we’ll see.
This is a very good observation.
On another note, since Trump announced yesterday (I did not see the speech) there are already many stating he was "low energy". What? Trump low energy? People want him to act more Presidential so now he is low energy?
Stupid.