US nuclear forces chief says Ukraine ‘just the warmup’ for larger crisis

UK Independent ^ | November 4, 2022 | Andrew Feinberg

[ansel12]

The Russians started a war by invading Ukraine, Ukraine is not starting a war by not surrendering to the invading army.

[delta7]

The Ukies violated the Minsk Agreements they themselves signed , by bombing the Donbass and Russian provinces ( note: now a part of the Russian Federation) for eight years.

[ansel12]

If you aren’t a warmonger, then stop attacking the victim you are attacking.

[Cathi]

I am a big fan of that Ukrainian Telegram Channel...having an inside source in the Office of the President and a willingness to tell truths whether favorable or unfavorable to Ukraine makes it unique.

Here are the most recent posts...very interesting to see how they see things.

https://t.me/s/rezident_ua/

⚡️⚡️#Inside
Our source in the OP said that there are more and more problems with volunteers / mercenaries, and for the Armed Forces of Ukraine they turn into ballast. The morale of the soldiers who came from abroad has fallen sharply, it is becoming much harder to fight, they are not used to the late autumn weather and the hardships associated with it.

Systematically comes information that they refuse to obey the AFU commanders, violate discipline and complain to the Western media. If at the beginning of the war they played a significant role for the Ukrainian army, now the situation is changing dramatically.

https://t.me/resident_ua/14872
Telegram
Resident
⚡️⚡️⚡️#Inside
Our source in the OP said that foreign volunteers/mercenaries refused to take part in the assault on Kherson, which is why the entire operation is postponed for several weeks until the Armed Forces of Ukraine collect new reserves.

The main track of the diplomacy of the Office of the President is reparations from Russia worth a trillion dollars, according to the victory formula formulated by Andrey Yermak.

Zelensky said that the only condition for peace could be the restoration of Ukraine within the 1991 borders. And Yermak voiced the “victory formula” in the understanding of Ukraine: reaching the 1991 borders, Russia paying reparations and international security guarantees for Ukraine so that the Russian Federation does not attack again.

In other words, the compromise under the scheme “Russia withdraws from part of the occupied territories and a truce is concluded” will be publicly rejected.

#political season
Ukraine is actually cut off from export earnings. Even at the beginning of hostilities, the country suffered losses from the cessation of supplies of raw materials and industrial products, and now, after the Russian strikes on the critical energy infrastructure of Ukraine, it had to abandon the export of electricity to the European Union. And this is a very big minus not only for the Ukrainian economy as a whole, but also a lost source of payments for the supply of Western weapons.

Earlier, according to the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine, electricity was exported to the European Union, as well as by separate lines to Moldova and Poland. Ukrainian exports increased several times due to losses as a result of hostilities of their own industry (metallurgy, petrochemistry, mining) and territories. Against this background, Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine, by increasing supplies, will gradually become “one of the guarantors of Europe’s energy security.” However, a series of Russian strikes on critical infrastructure, launched on October 10, led to a blackout in many cities and the loss of the energy security of Ukraine itself. It is noteworthy that the Russian Federation “killed two birds with one stone” - it not only pumps out the last resources from Ukraine, but also does not allow Europe to capitalize on the military conflict.

The same Poland counted that cheap Ukrainian electricity (three times cheaper than Polish) will help during the energy crisis, especially in winter. The Poles launched an additional transmission line from the Khmelnitsky nuclear power plant to Rzeszow with plans to increase supplies to 1000 MW per day and even wanted to export electricity, making money on it. Now these dreams will not come true, as well as the dreams of Romania, Slovakia and even Germany. And Ukraine, as the former “guarantor of Europe’s energy security,” has to buy electricity in Slovakia and ask the EU for help. Slovakia and even Germany.

Ukraine’s critical infrastructure is at its limit, which means that the next missile strikes could completely disable it.

Power outage schedules do not work Ukrenergo introduces emergency blackouts.

It is worth considering the fact that the cold has not yet come and the load is minimal, which means that the system will not be able to function in winter.

Resident
forwarded from
ZeRada
💵💵💵Options for 300 yards

EU lawyers were asked to evaluate possible options for the confiscation of Russia’s frozen financial assets.

Brussels officials want to force the Russian Federation to finance the supply of European weapons to Ukraine and the restoration of the destroyed infrastructure with the funds of the Russian Federation. Loud statements in this regard are intended to probe the possible response of the Russian Federation to such actions.

What can it be:
1️⃣Money is dust. As part of the Big Deal, the Russian Federation may concede these funds. If the main aspects - territorial and security - are resolved, then Moscow will not fight for some 300 billion. Morally, both the leadership and society said goodbye to this money. Economists understand that they were lost not at the moment of freezing, but when the Central Bank, instead of using them in the real sector, invested them in “reliable” assets.

2️⃣Triple hit. If there is no deal, then Putin is likely to prohibit Russian companies from repaying their loans to Western banks. Companies will continue to pay loans, but not to European banks, but to the fund of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The condition for transferring them further to creditors will be the unfreezing and return of assets. This would be a triple blow to the EU banking market: reputational damage; assets from the balance sheets went to Ukraine and the military-industrial complex; Russian business does not repay loans, which are more than 400 billion.

3️⃣Financial exchange. A kind of offset of counterclaims. With it, the credit obligations of the Russian Federation can be repaid at the expense of frozen assets. Companies of the Russian Federation will begin to extinguish obligations directly to the Central Bank, within the country. The financial sector of the Russian Federation will improve even more, and the EU will not receive a knockout blow in the form of the refusal of the Russian Federation from obligations.

In the meantime, the parties are avoiding drastic steps. The reputation of the Western financial system has already been seriously tarnished by the freeze. More or less independent Central Banks such as Turkey and India go into gold.

Lawyers understand that there are NO real mechanisms for confiscation. Politi demand to create them. The banks are begging not to do it.

⚡️⚡️#InsideOur
source in the OP said that Sullivan discussed with Zelensky the possible timing of the counteroffensive on Kherson, for the Biden Administration this is the main goal in the fight against Russia at this stage. The President’s Office assured Sullivan that attacks southward would resume next week.