The big thing polls are ignoring is indie numbers. Trafalgar et al routinely poll under 10% indie in states that have 30% turnout of indies, and indies are set to vote heavily republican. Who knows how many Ds will flip over as well, but I’m sure it’s quite less.
The issue with Indies is their turnout in off-year elections.
They are more unpredictable than party regulars.
That may be why Trafalgar underpolls them this year.
I am convinced the bigger issue is poll refusals by folks who don’t want to be doxxed, canceled or on some Deep State target list.
Those voters (how many I do not know and can’t figure out how to tell) will all vote Republican.
The polls can’t tell us how much election fraud there will be. The pollsters are unable to poll the dead.
“Who knows how many Ds will flip over as well”
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Some will flip because they’re not happy with the rampant inflation, crime, etc. but the more likely problem for Dems is turnout. Given the onslaught of problems facing the country and Biden’s general popularity, that’s not much of a backdrop to motivate them to vote.