He may have to pay it out, but it will be after their reputations are purposefully damaged.
This is too far into 9D chess.
What I think will happen is that he is going to lose in court. These guys are going to get their payout and now more because of the lawsuit, but more important to Musk is that he retains his Rockstar image - “rock around like you just don’t care!”
Gone are the days of bland suit-wearing boring businessmen. On a new day we’ll have a celeberty-businessman competition.