Iran Update, July 18, 2024
Members of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s inner circle told Western Media that Khamenei sought to promote the candidacy of Masoud Pezeshkian due to Pezeshkian’s ability to “foster unity.”[1] Individuals close to the supreme leader told Western media that Khamenei received intelligence reports in May 2024 revealing that only 13 percent of Iranians would participate in the snap presidential election following former President Ebrahim Raisi’s death. Unnamed regime insiders stated that Khamenei subsequently “orchestrated” the election to result in the victory of moderate candidate Masoud Pezeshkian due to Khamenei’s fear that low voter turnout would “damage the clerical establishment’s credibility.” Regime insiders told Western media that Khamenei stated Iran needed a president who could “appeal to different layers of society” while “foster[ing] unity among those in power” and without challenging Iran’s ruling theocracy. This may be part of an effort to emphasize the regime’s stability and message to the West that attempts to undermine the regime will fail and that negotiations will prove the only successful way to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Iranian officials believe that the United States and the West have used and are using media and other non-military means to fight a “soft war” against Iran to subvert the regime and eventually overthrow it. These Iranian officials, by presenting the facade of stability, appear to be attempting to discourage these efforts.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-18-2024
... or prevent the Paydari group and Mirbagheri from getting more power.
Khamenei man praises attack on Israel amid talk of ‘new foreign policy’
The top military advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader praised him as the mastermind behind the April 13 air attack on Israel, while Tehran tries to convince the world that the president-elect will bring a new foreign policy approach. “The Supreme Leader decided on this operation that was unprecedented in the 78-year history of the Zionist regime. No leader or country had ever dared to do so; launching hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel is no joke,” General Yahya Rahim Safavi said on Thursday.
Described as “Operation True Promise” by Tehran, the air strike employing over 350 drones and missiles marked Iran’s first direct assault on Israeli territory. According to the Israeli military, 99% of the projectiles were intercepted with the assistance of a coalition led by the US. The raid was a response to what Iran said was an Israeli attack on its consulate in Damascus, which resulted in the death of seven officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including a senior commander.
Observers noted that the successful interception of the missiles and drones represented a significant defensive victory for Israel, casting doubt on Iran’s aggressive tactics. Despite this, Iranian officials continue to depict the attack as a military success, leveraging state media and public statements to emphasize their military capabilities and project power against adversaries as the shadow war with Iran’s archenemy reached a historic climax.
In fact, Safavi’s claim that Iran’s attack represented an unprecedented operation, armies of three Arab countries launched a massive land and air assault on Israel in October 1973, involving hundreds of thousands of troops and close to 1,000 warplanes.
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202407186709
The Houthis launched a one-way attack drone into Tel Aviv for the first time on July 18, killing one individual and injuring at least another 10.[1] The Houthis appear to have flown the drone from Yemen to the Mediterranean Sea before turning it eastward into Tel Aviv.[2] The drone then struck an apartment building about 100 meters from a US consulate.[3] The Houthis have claimed responsibility for the attack and vowed to continue attacking deep into Israel.[4] The Houthis said that the attack used their new “Yafa” drone, which appears to be a modified variant of the Iranian-designed Samad-3 drone.[5] The Yafa drone carried around 10 kilograms of explosives, according to an Israeli military correspondent.[6]
The Houthis have conducted reconnaissance in force against the Israeli air defense network in recent months, which may have enabled the attack into Tel Aviv. The US Army defines reconnaissance in force as “a deliberate combat operation designed to discover or test the enemy's strength, dispositions, and reactions or to obtain other information.”[7] The Houthis have conducted regular drone and missile attacks targeting Israel since October 2023 to this end.[8] These attacks could have provided the Houthis with the information needed to evade Israeli air defenses and strike targets in Tel Aviv. The almost daily Lebanese Hezbollah and Iraqi militia attacks targeting Israel could be meant to similarly gather information on Israeli air defenses and vulnerabilities.
The Houthi reconnaissance-in-force effort against Israeli air defenses reflects more broadly how Iran and its Axis of Resistance are learning from the Israel-Hamas war and accordingly developing new ways of fighting Israel. Senior Iranian military officials have discussed, for instance, how Hamas’ attack into Israel in October 2023 demonstrated how effective and valuable ground incursions into Israel could be.[9] Iran and the Axis of Resistance have similarly experimented throughout the war with how to disrupt the Israeli economy by attacking critical Israeli infrastructure and international shipping.[10]
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated on July 19 that Iran has reduced its nuclear breakout time to one to two weeks.[15] Senior US officials have previously estimated that the Iranian nuclear breakout time was between 12 days and several months. Blinken’s statement comes as Iran has in recent months expanded its nuclear program and run computer simulations that could support the production of a nuclear weapon.[16] Senior Iranian officials have threatened repeatedly in recent months to pursue a nuclear weapon.[17]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-19-2024
18JUL2024 ... or prevent the Paydari group and Mirbagheri from getting more power.
22JUL2024 The shadowy Iran ayatollah who is being ‘vilified’
Ayatollah Mohammad-Mehdi Mirbagheri who endorsed ultra-hardliner Saeed Jalili in Iran’s recent snap elections has come under attack for his extreme views. Such attacks may relate to his alleged leadership ambitions.
Mirbagheri is largely seen as the successor of the late Ayatollah Mohammad-Taghi Mesbah-Yazdi, the spiritual father of Iran’s ultraconservatives, whom Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei held in very high esteem.
As a member of the Assembly, Mirbagheri contends that the Assembly’s role must be “supporting” the Supreme Leader, not “supervising” him as the Constitution dictates. He has always strongly supported Khamenei as the absolute authority and the Supreme Islamic Jurist (Vali-ye Faghih).
Mirbagheri teaches that fighting “infidels” and overcoming them is a prerequisite for the “emergence” of the hidden Imam, Mahdi, who the Shiittes believe has been in occultation by divine for centuries.
Mirbagheri’s views about the “world order” are similar to those of Alexander Dugin, the Russian ultranationalist philosopher, who has regularly been invited to visit Iran in recent years and met with Mirbagheri and other hardliners in Qom, the bastion of ultra-hardliners.
Opponents highlight Mirbagheri’s extreme views about women’s education “in the Western style”, hijab, social freedoms, his refutation of “Western sciences” as well as his advocacy of the “clash of civilizations”.
An article Wednesday by Mehrdad Khadir, deputy editor of the reformist Ham Mihan newspaper, suggested that Jalili’ defeat has saved Iranians from the danger of domination of Mirbagheri’s extreme views.
Some hardliners who now present Mirbagheri as a danger to the foundations of the Islamic Republic’s political and religious establishment allege that his supporters have plans to pitch him as the country’s future Supreme Leader. They also warn that under his leadership religious fundamentalism and extreme anti-Western views will prevail in the Islamic Republic.
Some others allege that Mirbagheri’s vilification is another “Khamenei gambit” meant to make him and his son Mojtaba look “moderate” in comparison and to eliminate him as a leadership contender and rival to Mojtaba.
Supporters of Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf blamed Jalili and his political sponsors, the ultra-hardliner Paydari (Steadfastness) Party and the recently established Jebhe-ye Sobh-e Iran (MASAF), for the defeat of the ‘revolutionary front’ in the elections. They were among the first to condemn Mirbagheri and his views on social media post elections.
Paydari and MASAF members often reiterate Mirbagheri’s apocalyptic, anti-western political, and anti-modernity views in their speeches and propaganda. Members of both groups have taken over many top and sensitive positions in the government in the past few years and formed a very influential minority in the parliament.
full article + links https://www.iranintl.com/en/202407187944