The Axis of Resistance is continuing to try to coerce Gulf states into reducing their economic cooperation with Israel. Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah warned Saudi Arabia on July 13 that it will “pay the price” for allowing Israel to conduct trade through Saudi territory.[1] Kataib Hezbollah accused Saudi Arabia of allowing Israel to use overland trade routes through Saudi territory “as an alternative to sea lanes.”[2] Kataib Hezbollah was likely referring to the trade corridor that connects Israel to the Persian Gulf via the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, and Jordan.[3] Israel has increasingly relied on this land route to mitigate the impact of Houthi attacks on international shipping around the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea.[4] The Houthis conducted around 190 attacks targeting commercial vessels in the Red Sea between November 2023 and mid-June 2024, causing trade activity at the Port of Eilat to decrease by approximately 85 percent.[5] Kataib Hezbollah previously vowed in April 2024 to sever the Israeli “land bridge” that passes through Jordan.[6]
Kataib Hezbollah's desire to disrupt the Israeli economic cooperation with the Gulf states is part of a larger Axis of Resistance effort to economically isolate Israel. Iranian leaders, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, have repeatedly called on Muslim countries to impose an embargo on Israel.[7] Iranian officials and media have also criticized Gulf states for allowing Israel to conduct trade through their territory and argued that the “land bridge” connecting Israel to the Persian Gulf renders Houthi attacks in the Red Sea “ineffective.”[8] An Iranian-backed Bahraini militia began conducting attacks targeting Israel in April 2024 as part of the Axis of Resistance effort to impose an unofficial blockade on Israel.[9] Iran and its allies appear to be operating on the theory that severe economic disruption would compel Israel to accept defeat in the Gaza Strip and that such economic pressure could ultimately collapse the Israeli state. Iranian leaders have repeatedly said in recent months that part of their theory on how to destroy Israel revolves around stoking instability and terror in Israel to catalyze reverse migration away from Israel.[10]
Iranian officials are continuing to promote greater cooperation with Russia. Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanani traveled to Moscow on July 12 to attend a BRICS conference.[68] Kanani called for increasing media and public diplomacy cooperation during a meeting with Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova on the sidelines of the conference on July 13.[69] Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf separately conducted an interview with Russia Today (RT) on July 13 in which he called for greater political, security, financial, and defense cooperation between Iran and Russia.[70] Ghalibaf recently attended a BRICS parliamentary forum in St. Petersburg on July 11 and 12.[71]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-15-2024
Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian is articulating a foreign policy that is a continuation of the policies of his hardline predecessor even as Pezeshkian attempts to present himself to the West as a “reformist.” Pezeshkian penned an op-ed entitled “My Message to the World” in English-language, Foreign Ministry-affiliated outlet the Tehran Times on July 12.[1] Pezeshkian framed himself as a reformist and reiterated that he ran his presidential campaign “on a platform of reform.” Pezeshkian contradicted his initial statement by reaffirming his commitment to many of the policies of his hardline predecessor, most notably signaling support for continuing former President Ebrahim Raisi’s “neighborhood” policy. The “neighborhood” policy seeks to build relations with regional states.[2] The policy is part of a broader Iranian effort to build a new regional order in which Iran is a central player and the United States has little influence.[3] Pezeshkian emphasized the importance of cooperation with regional partners including Iraq, Oman, Bahrain and Turkey emphasized the importance of working with neighboring Arab countries in an op-ed in UK-based, Qatari-owned Arabic-lanage outlet al Araby al Jadeed on July 10.[4] Pezeshkian added that one of his administration's first measures will be to work with neighboring Arab countries to ”utilize all political and diplomatic leverages” to secure a ceasefire and prevent the widening of the Israel-Hamas war. Pezeshkian stressed the ”devalue” of Iran's relations with Russia and China.[5] Pezeshkian separately reaffirmed his commitment to the Axis of Resistance through letters and phone calls following the election.[6]
Pezeshkian’s only articulated policy that aligned with his “reformist” agenda is his desire to pursue a nuclear deal with the West. Pezeshkian restated his intention to engage in “constructive dialogue” with Western countries in his op-ed. Pezeshkian repeatedly emphasized his desire to pursue nuclear negotiations with the West throughout his campaign.[7] It is unclear whether Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would permit Pezeshkian to pursue nuclear negotiations with the West in a manner that is meaningfully different from the Ebrahim Raisi administration. The Raisi administration attempted to pursue nuclear negotiations with the West, albeit Raisi sought to gain broad sanctions relief in exchange for small concessions on the Iranian nuclear program.[8] Khamenei implicitly criticized Pezeshkian’s support for increasing Iranian engagement with the West in a speech on June 25.[9]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-16-2024