Houthi Supreme Leader Abdulmalik al Houthi claimed on May 16 that the Houthis have attacked international shipping in the Mediterranean Sea in recent days.[1] No evidence to support this claim is currently available. Abdulmalik stated that the Houthis conducted two attacks targeting Israel-affiliated targets in the Mediterranean Sea over the past week without providing further details.[2] The Houthis’ Shahed-136 drone has a range of around 2,500 kilometers and could thus reach the Mediterranean Sea.[3] Abdulmalik's claim comes after the Houthis announced on May 3 that they began a “fourth phase” of escalation by targeting international shipping bound for Israel in the Mediterranean Sea.[4]
Abdulmalik's claim is likely part of the broader effort that the Axis of Resistance is conducting to impose an unofficial blockade on Israel. Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Bahrain have similarly claimed in recent weeks to have conducted attacks targeting Israeli infrastructure and sites tied to Israeli international trade.[5] It is similarly unclear whether these attacks actually occurred. Iran and its so-called “Axis of Resistance” appear to be operating on the theory that severe economic disruption would compel Israel to accept defeat in the Gaza Strip and that such economic pressure could ultimately collapse the Israeli state. Iranian leaders have said repeatedly in recent months that their theory of how to destroy Israel revolves around stoking fear in Israel in order to catalyze reverse migration away from Israel. Iran has sought to extend its military reach into the Mediterranean Sea as part of this effort, as CTP-ISW has previously reported.[6]
CTP-ISW has previously assessed that the Houthis will likely fail to disrupt trade around the Mediterranean Sea in the same way that they have around the Red Sea.[7] The Houthis have a much more limited suite of capabilities that could reach the Mediterranean Sea. The Houthis also presumably lack a robust targeting capability there, whereas the Iranian Behshad surveillance ship provides targeting intelligence the Houthis around the Bab al Mandeb strait.[8]
Abdulmalik separately called on Iranian-backed Iraqi militias to join the Houthis’ “fourth phase” of escalation in the Mediterranean Sea.[9] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—has claimed several attacks on Israeli civilian and military infrastructure along the Israeli coast since December 2023.[10] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq also claimed that it could reach the Mediterranean Sea with a drone similar to the Houthi Samad drone on May 13.[11]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-16-2024
A sudden escape was also part of the plan to assassinate two of Zeraati’s colleagues in the autumn of 2022. In that case, spies working for the Iranian regime hired a people-smuggler to find gangsters in London willing to kill a former Iran International presenter, Sima Sabet, and a current presenter, Fardad Farahzad, in exchange for $200,000 and a new life, possibly in Iran. The plotters code-named the pair ‘the bride and the groom’ when discussing ways to kill them in order to show critics of the regime that they could be attacked anywhere in the world and ‘at any time’.
Much has been made of Iran's use of proxies abroad, in relation to the escalation of the war in the Middle East: militia groups in Iraq and Syria, Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. They're all connected to, but not controlled by, Iran. The network has given the Iranian regime the power to act beyond its own borders, giving Tehran plausible deniability when missiles are fired from Yemen at commercial vessels in the Red Sea, for example, or when US military facilities in the region are attacked.
It now appears the same arm's length approach is being deployed against individuals abroad – Tehran’s perceived enemies in London, across Europe and in the US.
Examples include a case revealed in January, when US federal officials said two Canadian members of the Hells Angels biker gang had plotted to kill Iranian dissidents living in Maryland. The Iranian organisers reportedly agreed to pay $350,000 for the job plus a further $20,000 to cover expenses.
Two years ago, the US charged an Iranian man with attempting to hire a hitman to kill John Bolton, a former national security adviser in the Trump administration, for $300,000.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/gangs-of-tehran-how-iran-takes-out-its-enemies-abroad/
Former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander Mohsen Rezaei claimed on May 16 that Iran launched 162 drones, 30 cruise missiles, and 100 ballistic missiles during its April 13 drone and missile attack on Israel.[66] The IDF previously stated on April 14 that Iran launched approximately 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles, and 120 ballistic missiles.[67] Senior Iranian leaders have previously claimed that Iran's April 13 attack was a ”success.”[68] Iranian officials have separately stated that Iran has adopted a new “equation” for confronting Israel under which Iran will retaliate by launching attacks targeting Israel directly from Iranian territory should Israel attack Iran or Iranian targets abroad.[69]
The Iranian Law Enforcement Command (LEC) arrested over 230 individuals on charges of performing “acts of satanism” in Shahriar city, 30 km west of Tehran, on May 16.[70] The arrest included three European citizens.[71] The arrested individuals were accused of wearing satanic symbols on their clothes and bodies, drinking alcohol, and consuming psychedelic substances.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-17-2024