Iran Update, August 4, 2023
Local Syrian leaders met with Iranian military leaders in Deir ez Zor City to inform them that the US-led International Coalition will not attack Syrian regime-controlled territory. These assurances will not likely stop the buildup of Iranian-backed forces in eastern Syria.
Iran could pursue several courses of action in response to increasing US military deployments in the Persian Gulf. The most likely scenario is that Iran will further harass and threaten US forces.
Prominent Iranian Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid did not give a Friday sermon in Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province on August 4 for the first time since the Mahsa Amini protests began in September 2022.
Iranian state media confirmed on August 4 that Iran and Venezuela signed an agreement for Iran to export gasoline and oil products to Venezuela during President Ebrahim Raisi’s June 2023 trip to Latin America.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-4-2023
In a video that has gone viral on Iranian social media this week, well-known economist Mohsen Renani says the clerical regime in Iran cannot survive. Reani said in the video that the regime cannot survive because its foundations are rotten and have been devoured by termites. He added that “the elite have left the country’s administrative system,” echoing others who have pointed out how the hardliners have put incompetent people in critical government position.
Renani, an economist and an outspoken critic of the Iranian political system has warned several times about the collapse of the regime following the nationwide protests in the fall of 2022 and 2023, which posed the most serious threat to the regime since its inception in 1979. Earlier, when the government reached out to him to help draft the country’s 7th Development Plan, he refused to cooperate and said that Iran’s economy was beyond rescue.
Renani argued in his latest video that you cannot solve the country’s problems using the same school of thought that created the problems in the first place. He added: “This political system has created several crises for the country with its underlying principles. So, it cannot resolve those crises using the same principles.”
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202308044728
Iran Update, August 7, 2023
Iranian-backed militia Ashab al Kahf called on August 5 for protests outside the US embassy in Baghdad. These calls come as Ashab al Kahf has conducted an IED campaign against Iraqi-operated logistics convoys servicing US military positions.
Iran and Russia continued discussions on cooperating to jointly produce and repair airplanes and helicopters. Iran could use domestically produced aircraft and helicopters for both civilian and military purposes.
Iran’s worsening water crisis is increasing the risk of conflict between Iran and its neighbors. Western media reported on August 7 that the Afghan Taliban sent “thousands” of troops and “hundreds” of suicide bombers to the Iran-Afghanistan border in late May 2023.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-7-2023