[AdmSmith]

IRAN CRISIS UPDATE, OCTOBER 8

Regime messaging suggests that key regime officials could be posing to gain or retain favor as part of efforts to shape the succession to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei rather than focusing on responding to protestor grievances.
Anti-regime protests occurred in at least 29 Iranian cities in 20 provinces.
Iranian security forces are using increasingly violent and lethal means to suppress protests.
Protestors have demonstrated the capacity to coordinate demonstrations despite extensive internet and telecommunication restrictions.
Protest rhetoric has evolved to include revolutionary calls to topple the regime.
Oil industry workers and bazaar merchants participated in strikes on October 8.
The IRGC did not attack anti-regime Kurdish militia positions for the first time since September 26, likely in part because the Iraqi parliament met to discuss the attacks.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-october-8

[AdmSmith]

IRAN CRISIS UPDATE, OCTOBER 9

Anti-regime protests occurred in at least 18 cities in 15 provinces.
Anti-regime group The Neighborhood Youth of Tehran announced their expansion to other unnamed cities in Iran.
Some low-level military and security personnel may have defected.
Iranian leadership may have ordered the IRGC Ground Forces to participate directly in the protest crackdown.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-october-9

[gleeaikin]

Here is a very interesting recent update on the Iran situation. It ties in well with today’s announcement of oil workers joining the protests. The first and last sentences suggest that the powers that be suspect there really may be an overthrow of the current regime. If that happens, Iran will probably not be continuing to supply those nasty drones to Russia to use against Ukraine.

I also wonder what might happen with regard to relations with some of the Stans, especially ones that already are not so fond of Russia. Perhaps major changes in the nuclear situation for Iran. Lots to ponder and hope for.