Iran Update, September 5, 2025
Iran continued meeting with European officials and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) after the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) triggered the snapback process, but Iranian officials show no indication that they will concede to E3 demands regarding the Iranian nuclear program. The E3 triggered the 30-day snapback process to reimpose UN Security Council sanctions on Iran on August 28.[1] The E3 previously told Iran that they would delay the reimposition of UN sanctions by up to six months if Iran met three key conditions, which include restoring the IAEA’s access to Iranian nuclear facilities, addressing concerns about Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium, and engaging in direct talks with the United States.[2] Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi met with European Union Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas on September 4 in Qatar to discuss Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium (HEU) and the resumption of IAEA access to Iran’s nuclear sites.[3] A Wall Street Journal reporter stated on September 4 that the talks produced no progress, and neither side shifted its stance during the talks.[4] Iran and the IAEA are expected to meet in Vienna on September 5.[5] Iranian Ambassador to the United Nations (UN) in Vienna, Reza Najafi, stated on September 5 that the discussions will define cooperation under Iran’s parliamentary law and establish the “new form of cooperation” with the agency.[6] The Iranian parliament passed a bill on June 25 that suspended all cooperation with the IAEA.[7] Iran recently allowed IAEA inspectors to return to Iran to monitor fuel replacement at the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP), but has barred them from accessing or inspecting damaged nuclear sites.[8]
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-september-5-2025/
Iran Update, September 8, 2025
Iranian officials are signaling openness to cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and negotiations with the United States, likely to try to avoid the reimposition of UN Security Council (UNSC) sanctions on Iran. Iranian hardline outlet Farhikhtegan, which is affiliated with Supreme Leader International Affairs Adviser Ali Akbar Velayati, reported on September 8 that the regime has decided to resume negotiations with the United States under the condition that the UNSC does not reimpose sanctions on Iran under the snapback mechanism during negotiations.[1] The E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) triggered the 30-day snapback mechanism on August 28, which means that UNSC sanctions will automatically be reimposed on Iran on September 27 unless the UNSC extends sanctions relief for Iran.[2] Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi separately published an op-ed in the Guardian on September 7 in which he stated that Iran is ready to accept limits on uranium enrichment and allow extensive international oversight of its nuclear facilities in exchange for sanctions relief.[3] Araghchi specifically directed his op-ed to the E3.
Iranian leaders have recently expressed openness to resuming cooperation with the IAEA. Iran and the IAEA held their third round of talks in Vienna on September 6.[4] Araghchi and IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi stated following the meeting that Iran and the IAEA are close to reaching a new cooperation agreement.[5] Grossi suggested that Iran and the IAEA have not, however, agreed on a timeline for the resumption of IAEA inspections and stated that it is also unclear what the IAEA would do when inspections resume.[6] Iran may calculate that expressing willingness to cooperate with the IAEA and the United States will help Iran deter potential snapback sanctions. It is unclear if Iran is willing to make meaningful concessions on its nuclear program in talks with the IAEA or the United States, however. Iran previously rejected an E3 proposal to extend the snapback deadline by six months in exchange for Iran restoring full cooperation with the IAEA, resuming negotiations with the United States, and accounting for its 60 percent enriched uranium stockpile.[7] Araghchi and Grossi will reportedly meet in Cairo this week to finalize a new cooperation agreement.[8]
Iran is likely preparing for future conflicts with Israel and the United States by increasing funding for the Iranian armed forces and evaluating the combat readiness of armed forces units. The Iranian Parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Commission approved on September 7 a six-clause bill to increase the Iranian armed forces’ “defense capabilities.”[9] The IDF destroyed Iranian air defense systems and achieved air superiority over large parts of Iran during the Israel-Iran War, and Iran likely seeks to bolster its defensive capabilities in preparation for potential future conflicts.[10] The bill includes the following clauses.
1. The Planning and Budget Organization and Oil Ministry must pay the entirety of the funds allocated to strengthening the Iranian armed forces in the budget for the current Persian calendar year (March 2025-2026) and the previous Persian calendar year (March 2024- 2025).
2. The Planning and Budget Organization must fund the Supreme National Security Council’s defense allocations from public savings or the transfer of oil sales shares.
3. The Central Bank of Iran must provide the Armed Forces General Staff (AFGS) with up to two billion euros from blocked foreign assets or other overseas currency resources to implement emergency defense plans.
4. The Planning and Budget Organization, Central Bank of Iran, and Economy Ministry must provide the Defense and Armed Forces Logistics Ministry with two billion euros for “foreign purchases of major defense items.”
5. The Planning and Budget Organization and Oil Ministry are authorized to allocate $1.5 billion in oil revenues to the Iranian armed forces.
6. Iran will allocate 30 percent of its revenue from air transit fees to Artesh air defense systems annually.[11]
The clause to purchase “major defense items” is notable given that Iran has signaled interest in acquiring military equipment from foreign countries, such as China and Belarus, since the end of the Israel-Iran War.[12] Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier General Aziz Nasir Zadeh, who is responsible for Iranian arms sales and purchases, traveled to China in late June 2025 in his first foreign visit after the 12-day war.[13] Iranian media expressed support for purchasing Chinese military equipment, such as J-10 aircraft, after the war.[14] Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian recently traveled to Belarus, where he reportedly sought Belarusian help to restore Iranian air defense systems and electronic warfare (EW) equipment that Israel damaged during the June 2025 war.[15]
The Institute for Science and International Security reported on September 7 that Israeli airstrikes during the Israel-Iran War destroyed a key Iranian centrifuge research and development site, the Kalaye Electric Company, in Tehran.[19] The Kalaye Electric Company is a subsidiary of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran and manufactures advanced centrifuges for the Iranian nuclear program. Centrifuges are used to enrich uranium. The United States sanctioned the Kalaye Electric Company in February 2007 for its involvement in Iran’s weapons of mass destruction program.[20] The Institute reported that centrifuge design teams developed new centrifuge models and improved existing ones at the site.[21] Iran also reportedly previously tested advanced IR-8 centrifuges at the site.[22] There have been no repair efforts at the site following the war, according to the Institute.[23] US and Israeli airstrikes during the war targeted Iran’s centrifuge production facilities as well as active centrifuges, which will likely hinder Iran’s ability to enrich uranium in the near future.[24]
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei outlined a series of economic recommendations on September 7, which highlights the regime’s concern about worsening economic conditions and their potential to undermine internal stability.[25] Khamenei delivered a speech during a meeting with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and his cabinet on September 7 in which he called on the government to “discipline the market” and ensure Iranians’ access to essential goods.[26] Khamenei’s directive to “discipline the market” comes as the Iranian rial traded above one million rials per one US dollar on August 28.[27] Khamenei also ordered government officialsto build up reserves of essential goods, break import monopolies by diversifying suppliers, and guard basic goods against sudden price hikes.[28] The Iranian regime’s official data shows that Iranian household incomes have risen about 12.5 times since 2016, while the price of basic food items has increased more than 20 times.[29] Khamenei further emphasized that production is the key to economic progress and instructed officials not to cut electricity to factories except in emergencies.[30] Iranian media reported in late August that electricity shortages have forced about 50 percent of factories to go offline, which has created ripple effects across the economy.[31]
Khamenei also instructed Iranian officials and media outlets to emphasize Iran’s strengths and avoid portraying Iran as weak.[32] Khamenei’s directive comes after the Culture and Islamic Guidance Ministry restricted “provocative” media coverage of potential snapback sanctions.[33] Iranian authorities directed outlets to frame the E3‘s (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) recent decision to trigger the snapback mechanism as proof of European dependence on the United States and to emphasize Iran’s resilience.[34] Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi similarly directed Iranian media on September 7 to present potential snapback sanctions as a political setback but not as an economic catastrophe and warned that exaggerating the impacts of potential sanctions could inflame public anxiety.[35] CTP-ISW previously assessed that the Iranian regime likely seeks to control the media narrative about potential snapback sanctions to prevent further public frustration about deteriorating economic conditions and reduce the risk of economic-related unrest.
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-september-8-2025/