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Iran Update, September 3, 2025

Iran possessed 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched up to 60 percent before the start of the Israel-Iran War on June 12, according to an unreleased International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report obtained by the Associated Press.[1] The Associated Press reported on September 3 that Iran increased its stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium by 32.5 kilograms between May 17 and June 13, citing the unreleased IAEA report.[2] Iran's 60 percent enriched uranium stockpile is equivalent to approximately 10.5 significant quantities, which refers to the “approximate amount of nuclear material for which the possibility of manufacturing a nuclear explosive device cannot be excluded.”[3] Iran has enough 60 percent enriched uranium, if enriched further, to produce at least 10 nuclear weapons. Iran is unlikely to be able to access this uranium due to the damage that Israeli and US strikes caused to Iranian nuclear facilities during the war, however. The IAEA report added that Iran's total stockpile of enriched uranium is 9,874.9 kilograms.[4] This amount marks a 627.3 kilogram increase in Iran's total stockpile of enriched uranium since May 17.[5] The IAEA reported that the IAEA has not inspected any Iranian nuclear site except the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant since the Israel-Iran War.[6] The Iranian parliament passed a bill on June 25 that suspended all cooperation with the IAEA, and IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi confirmed on September 3 that Iran has provided the IAEA with no information on the status of Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile since June 13.[7] CIA Director John Ratcliffe stated in July 2025 that the US and Israeli strikes during the war buried the “vast majority” of Iran's enriched uranium at the Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center (ENTC) and Fordow and that it would be “extremely difficult” for Iran to extract the material.[8] The IAEA reported on August 27 that there is no evidence that Iran has moved its stockpile of highly enriched uranium from the ENTC since the US strikes on June 21, citing satellite imagery.[9] Grossi said that Iran and the IAEA will hold another round of talks in the coming days to discuss resuming IAEA inspections at Iranian nuclear facilities, including those that Israel and the United States struck during the war.[10]

Iran is likely trying to prevent popular discontent by restricting Iranian media reporting about potential snapback sanctions. The E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) triggered the 30-day snapback process to reimpose UN Security Council sanctions on Iran on August 28.[11] The Iranian Culture and Islamic Guidance Ministry reportedly issued a confidential directive to Iranian media outlets to restrict their coverage of the E3’s activation of the snapback mechanism.[12] The directive advised media outlets to frame potential sanctions as a sign of European dependence on the United States, emphasize Iran's ability to withstand economic pressure, and avoid portraying Iran's future negatively.[13] Iranian Judiciary Spokesperson Asghar Jahangir stated on September 3 that the E3’s decision to trigger the snapback mechanism was “a propaganda and psychological tool to target the people's morale through psychological warfare.”[14] Jahangir urged Iranian media outlets to act “intelligently” and “maintain national cohesion and unity.”[15] Iranian media outlet Nour News separately published an op-ed on September 2 that encouraged Iranian civilians and officials to maintain “national self-confidence” and avoid “simplistic and exaggerated rhetoric” regarding the E3’s snapback decision.[16] The Iranian regime likely seeks to control the media narrative about potential snapback sanctions to prevent reports about the negative economic impacts of sanctions from further increasing public frustration about Iran's poor economic conditions and potentially driving economic-related unrest. The regime's efforts to control the Iranian media space come as the Iranian rial has depreciated to near record-low levels in recent days and the Iranian economy faces exorbitant inflation.[17]

https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-september-3-2025/

1,502 posted on 09/04/2025 10:22:51 PM PDT by AdmSmith (GCTGATATGTCTATGATTACTCAT)
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Iran Update, September 4, 2025

Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)-affiliated Tasnim News Agency proposed a series of steps on September 3 that it argued the Iranian regime should take to confront hybrid warfare.[1] The regime defines hybrid warfare as “the use of all domains of power, including information, electronic, cultural, social, and military operations, by hostile actors to destabilize Iran.”[2] The Tasnim report outlined the following three main areas that Iran must address to withstand hybrid warfare:

Redefining Governance Structures and Processes: Tasnim called for re-engineering Iran's governance system and warned that a centralized bureaucracy is too slow and brittle for hybrid war.[3] Tasnim urged the regime to create mechanisms to monitor internal divisions, accelerate bureaucratic processes, and provide more authority to governors and local officials. It argued that decentralized power would make governance more flexible and resilient, which would speed up the regime's responses to crises such as unrest, cyberattacks, or supply disruptions.

Reforming the Relationship Between the Regime and People: Tasnim called for the regime to treat the Iranian people as Iran's main strategic asset rather than dependents of the state.[4] It stressed that victory in hybrid war requires citizens to actively participate in governance, including via neighborhood security, the economy, and cultural resistance. Tasnim highlighted that small, agile grassroots groups involved with technology, media, and culture would counter stronger adversaries and shape public opinion so that people accept hardships as part of a larger struggle for independence and survival.

Developing Iran's “resistance economy:” Tasnim called for the regime to turn the economy into a “defensive stronghold.”[5] It emphasized the need to end dependence on crude oil sales, cut reliance on food imports and gas consumption, and enforce tight control over foreign exchange and trade. Tasnim also called for building long-term cooperation with Axis of Resistance members, neighboring states, and emerging powers such as Russia and China to secure essential goods and bypass Western economic pressure.

Tasnim also warned that adversaries use media narratives to target the minds and will of the people, which the outlet referred to as “narrative warfare.”[6] Tasnim’s call to prioritize narrative warfare is consistent with recent regime efforts to control domestic reporting on snapback sanctions.[7] Iranian officials have recently directed outlets to downplay the E3’s (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) activation of the snapback mechanism and avoid negative portrayals of Iran's future.[8]

Iran continues to refuse to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). A Western media journalist posted on X on September 3 that Iran proposed a new inspection arrangement to the IAEA on August 14 that would delay IAEA inspection requests for Fordow, Natanz, and the Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center (ENTC), which are the three major Iranian nuclear facilities that were struck by Israel and the United States during the Israel-Iran War. The Iranian proposal would allow Iran to determine how Iran's nuclear activities would be investigated.[14] Iran also revoked the accreditations of two experienced IAEA inspectors in August for mistakenly taking documents from Fordow to Vienna that reportedly described the facility's interior.[15] The IAEA stated that the revocation was unjustified because the documents did not include any information that would compromise the facility's security.[16] This comes after the Iranian parliament passed a law on June 25 suspending all cooperation with the IAEA.[17] IAEA Director General Grossi said on September 3 that Iran and the IAEA will hold another round of talks in the coming days to discuss resuming IAEA inspections at Iranian nuclear facilities, but it is unlikely that any agreement will be reached due to Iran's opposition.[18]

https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-september-4-2025/

1,503 posted on 09/04/2025 10:42:02 PM PDT by AdmSmith (GCTGATATGTCTATGATTACTCAT)
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