Larijani reaffirmed Iran's commitment to support the Axis of Resistance and framed resistance groups as natural responses to “foreign aggression.”[9] Larijani stressed that Iran considers the Axis of Resistance a genuine and strategic asset.[10] Iran previously used the Axis as a key deterrent against the United States and Israel, but the Axis of Resistance has been badly degraded over the past two years of fighting with Israel. Larijani compared Iran's support for regional allies to US support for Israel and warned that abandoning them would be “political insanity.”[11] Larijani rejected the idea that Hezbollah or other groups burden Iran and insisted that they both assist Iran and rely on Iranian support.[12] Larijani characterized the relationship with Hezbollah and other partner groups as “brothers” rather than “subordinates.” This is consistent with CTP-ISW’s longstanding assessment that the Axis of Resistance is an unconventional alliance that Iran leads. Some groups in the Axis are proxies, while Iran exerts more limited influence over other groups.[13] Larijani’s inaugural visits to Lebanon and Iraq attempted to demonstrate that Iran has not abandoned its partners in the Axis, but Larijani offered very little visible, tangible support during those visits.[14]
Larijani criticized international pressure on Iran from Western countries and accused the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) of “partisanship” against Iran during the 12 Day War. Larijani accused IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi of giving a “blank check” to the United States and Israel during the 12 Day War.[15] Larijani claimed that Grossi “completely gave up and surrendered” and called the agency's silence after Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities “truly disgraceful.”[16] Larijani questioned the value of continued cooperation with the IAEA but stopped short of calling for withdrawal from the NPT, saying instead that the treaty has had “no value” for Iran. Iranian officials repeatedly threatened to withdraw from the NPT if the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) triggers the snapback sanction mechanism at the end of August.[17] The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) snapback mechanism allows JCPOA signatories to reimpose UN Security Council sanctions on Iran in the event of “significant non-performance” of JCPOA commitments.[18] The snapback mechanism expires on October 18, 2025, but the E3 would need to initiate the snapback process at the end of August in order to meet the October 18 deadline.[19] Iran and the E3 previously discussed extending the snapback deadline during a July 25 Istanbul meeting.[20] An extension would require a new UNSC resolution with at least nine votes in favor of the resolution and no vetoes from permanent UNSC members. Larijani rejected European proposals to extend the UN Security Council snapback deadline, however. He said that the JCPOA fixed a ten-year limit to the snapback sanctions that cannot be altered. He added that any extensions are a form of “cheating.”[21] Larijani added that Iran will never abandon diplomacy but stressed that negotiations must be “real” and not a pretext for pressure. He also warned that Iran will not accept “submission.”[22] Iranian officials previously demanded preconditions, including assurances of no further strikes, to continue nuclear talks with the West.[23]
Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi echoed Larijani’s position during a phone call with the foreign ministers of the E3 and European Union Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas on August 22.[24] Araghchi insisted that only the UN Security Council can decide on an extension.[25] Araghchi stated that Iran will consult Russia and China on the implications of snapback sanctions.[26] Both sides agreed that Iran and the E3 will continue discussions at the deputy foreign minister level on August 26.[27] CTP-ISW assessed that Iran is very unlikely to accept any arrangement that restricts enrichment, even if the E3 extends the deadline.[28]
Larijani called on the regime to prioritize solving people's basic problems to preserve resilience in future conflicts. Larijani said citizens must have a minimum standard of living even in wartime so they can endure and remain steadfast, stressing that the state must meet essential needs in both war and peacetime. Larijani warned that energy shortages in electricity and gas, and factory closures, are unacceptable because they erode national wealth and weaken resilience. The regime may fear that if citizens grow dissatisfied, they will be less likely to support the regime in the next conflict. A recent energy shortage has forced Iran to shut schools, universities, and government offices across most provinces as authorities cut electricity and water amid extreme heat and war damage to infrastructure.[29] Larijani’s remarks follow a large protest in Shiraz, Fars Province, on August 21, where residents gathered outside the provincial governor's office to denounce repeated water and power outages and chanted “Not Gaza, not Lebanon - my life is for Iran.”[30] These chants are a criticism of the regime's decision to funnel resources to its regional partners while neglecting basic services for Iranians.[31] Energy shortages have triggered repeated unrest in recent months, including the May strike by iron market traders in Tehran and a large July demonstration in Gilan Province over water and electricity outages.[32]
Hezbollah officials have continued to warn the Lebanese government about potential confrontation if the Lebanese government attempts to disarm Hezbollah, which is likely an effort to leverage the government's concerns about internal conflict in Lebanon to delay or reverse the government's plan to disarm Hezbollah. Hezbollah Executive Council Head Ali Damoush said on August 22 that Hezbollah has acted calmly so far but that this approach will “not last long.”[45] Lebanese media recently reported on August 20 that Hezbollah vowed not to resort to protests and to keep things calm at least until the end of August.[46] Damoush added that Hezbollah may resort to escalation if the Lebanese government insists on implementing its decision to disarm Hezbollah.[47] Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem also made an earlier threat on August 15 to ”confront” the government and incite protests against it.[48] Prime Minister Nawaf Salam criticized Qassem’s speech on August 15 for containing “a veiled threat of civil war,“ which he stated no one in Lebanon wants.[49]
Other elements of the Lebanese government have not replied with as much confidence as Salam, which suggests that Hezbollah's efforts to prevent its disarmament by threatening the government may be experiencing some success. A pro-Hezbollah media outlet reported on August 22 that the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) had rhetorically responded to this pressure, however, by telling senior Lebanese officials and Hezbollah that it will not take any action that could undermine internal stability.[50] LAF Commander Brigadier General Rodolphe Haykal previously told Lebanese Parliament Speaker and Hezbollah ally Nabih Berri that the LAF will not “clash with a key component of the country.“[51] The LAF’s recent statements underscore the Lebanese government's ongoing concerns about internal conflict arising between the Lebanese state and Hezbollah.[52] Lebanese officials have raised concerns that the government's decision to disarm Hezbollah could spark communal tensions in Lebanon.[53] A delay or reversal of the Lebanese government's decision to disarm Hezbollah would provide Hezbollah with the time needed to reconstitute its forces and re-establish itself domestically.[54] Hezbollah is very unlikely to disarm on its own accord because it believes that its arms are central to its ability to challenge and ultimately destroy the Israeli state.[55]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-22-2025
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei rejected recent calls by Iranian reformist officials to reform Iran's domestic and foreign policies.[1] Khamenei delivered a speech on August 24 in which he claimed that “Iran's enemies” failed to defeat Iran during the Israel-Iran War and are now trying to do so by “creating discord in the country.”[2] Khamenei claimed that agents of the United States and Israel, along with “heedless speakers and writers,” are creating division.[3] Khamenei may have used the term “heedless speakers and writers” to refer to reformist officials who have recently called on the regime to reform its domestic and foreign policies. Former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani called on August 13 for the regime to make concessions to the Iranian people, strengthen societal resilience, and reduce tensions with the West.[4] The Iranian Reformist Front separately issued a statement on August 17 that called for political reforms and foreign policy shifts, including suspending uranium enrichment under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) oversight.[5] Khamenei rejected this and similar calls to engage with the United States in his speech on August 24, stating that the conflict between Iran and the United States is “unsolvable.” Khamenei additionally rejected direct talks with the United States but did not explicitly rule out the possibility of indirect negotiations.
The Iranian regime is facing increasing pressure to resume nuclear negotiations with the United States ahead of the E3’s (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) August 31 deadline for Iran to make progress toward a diplomatic solution to the nuclear issue. An Iranian delegation led by Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister for Political Affairs Majid Takht Ravanchi will meet with E3 officials in Geneva, Switzerland, on August 26 to continue talks over potential snapback sanctions.[6] British Foreign Secretary David Lammy stated on August 22 that the E3 will activate the snapback mechanism to reimpose United Nations Security Council (UNSC) sanctions on Iran unless Iran agrees to a “verifiable, durable deal.”[7] A senior French diplomat told Saudi media on August 25 that the meeting in Geneva would be the “last window open to the Iranian side.”[8] The E3 imposed a deadline of August 31 on Iran to make meaningful progress toward a nuclear deal, such as by renewing cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and resuming negotiations with the United States.[9] The E3 offered to postpone the expiration of the snapback mechanism to allow Iran more time to negotiate with the United States.[10] The snapback mechanism is currently set to expire in October 2025. Iranian officials have rejected postponing the deadline because extending the deadline would provide the E3 with more time to trigger the snapback mechanism. The E3 would need to initiate the snapback process by September 3 in order to complete the process by the current October deadline.[11] The snapback mechanism would reimpose six UNSC resolutions on Iran, including bans on the transfer of conventional arms to and from Iran, international support for Iran's missile program, enrichment-related activities, and the testing and development of nuclear-capable missiles.[12]
Iranian Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Secretary Ali Larijani is reportedly trying to convince the Iranian regime to reduce Iran's level of uranium enrichment from 60 percent to 20 percent to avoid snapback sanctions and further US and Israeli strikes, according to a senior Iranian official speaking to The Telegraph on August 24.[13] The senior official stated that Larijani is concerned that another war with the United States or Israel could present a major challenge to the regime.[14] Larijani reportedly faces the most opposition from Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) members.[15] The official also stated that Iranian leaders appear “willing to comply” with Larijani’s call to reduce enrichment levels and re-engage with Western countries.[16] The Washington Post similarly reported on July 13 that there is a “consensus” among Iran's political class that Iran needs to resume nuclear negotiations with the United States, citing political observers inside and outside of Iran.[17]These reports suggest that Iranian moderates who support nuclear negotiations with the United States are continuing to prevail over Iranian hardliners who reject negotiations. Larijani replaced Ali Akbar Ahmadian as SNSC secretary on August 5 as part of a broader restructuring of Iranian defense and security institutions after the Israel-Iran War. Larijani is a moderate politician who supported the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
Russia reportedly introduced a draft resolution to extend the snapback mechanism deadline, according to unspecified informed sources speaking to UK-based Amwaj Media on August 25.[18] The informed sources stated that China will reportedly co-sponsor the draft resolution.[19] The draft resolution would extend the snapback deadline by six months until April 2026 and reportedly prevent the E3 from being able to trigger the snapback mechanism during the six-month extension period.[20] Iran previously rejected an offer by the E3 to extend the snapback deadline, so it is unclear whether Iran will support the Russian draft proposal.[21] This report comes after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi held separate phone calls with their Russian counterparts, President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Affairs Minister Sergei Lavrov, respectively, to discuss, among other issues, potential snapback sanctions.[22] Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs Kazem Gharibabadi called Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu on August 24 to discuss a diplomatic resolution to the nuclear issue.[23]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-25-2025