Iran Update, August 5, 2025
Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem threatened Israel directly for the first time in months during his televised speech on August 5.[8] Qassem threatened to launch missiles targeting Israel if Israel engages in a “large-scale aggression“ against Lebanon.”[9] It is unlikely that Hezbollah possesses the capabilities to launch any large-scale attacks against Israel, given that it was severely degraded during the Israel-Lebanon conflict in late 2024.[10]
Qassem acknowledged that Hezbollah suffered a 45% casualty rate during the Israeli campaign in Lebanon, which almost certainly rendered Hezbollah combat ineffective. Hezbollah suffered 12.5% killed in action from its total force during the war. Qassem noted that Israel killed 5,000 Hezbollah fighters and wounded 13,000 others, which marks the first time that Hezbollah has provided an official death toll.[11] Hezbollah had 40,000 total fighters before the war, according to US intelligence, which means that 32.5% of its total force was wounded and 12.5% of its total force was killed.[12] Qassem said that Hezbollah still has fighters who are ready to make ”the harshest sacrifices” if needed.[13] The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has killed nearly all of the top Hezbollah commanders, degraded the Radwan Force, destroyed kilometers of offensive tunnels, and demonstrated the Israeli ability to rapidly inflict massive casualties upon Hezbollah at relatively little cost.[14]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-5-2025
Iran Update, August 6, 2025
Iran continues to contend with a severe water and energy crisis. Iran’s Water Resources Management Company reported on August 3 that Iran’s total water reserves have decreased by 26 percent in the last year.[44] The CEO of the Tehran Provincial Water and Wastewater Company said on August 4 that the dams that supply water to Tehran Province are only 12 percent full and urged Iranians to decrease their water consumption.[45] An official from Iran’s Environmental Protection Organization told reporters on August 5 that Lake Urmia’s water volume decreased from two billion cubic meters in August 2024 to half a billion cubic meters in August 2025, which marks Lake Urmia’s lowest ever recorded water volume.[46] Lake Urmia, which is in northwestern Iran, was once the largest lake in the Middle East before it started to dry up.[47] The CEO of Iran’s Electricity Network Management Company separately announced on August 4 that Iranians’ electricity consumption has surpassed 77,000 megawatts.[48] Iran has a maximum production capacity of 62,000 megawatts.[49] The Iranian Energy Ministry has implemented daily electricity blackouts in cities across Iran for four hours to reduce energy consumption.[50] Iran closed public offices, government buildings, and banks in over 20 provinces on August 6 to reduce water and energy consumption amid a severe heatwave.[51]
It is unlikely that the regime will be able to improve the water and energy shortages without meaningfully addressing underlying issues that exacerbate these shortages, such as poor infrastructure and mismanagement. A Tehran City Council member stated on August 5 that nearly 30 percent of Tehran’s water is wasted due to outdated infrastructure.[52] Iranian state media reported on August 5 that agriculture wastes 24 billion cubic meters of water per year.[53] State media reported on August 4 that Iranian parliamentarians submitted a motion to impeach Energy Minister Abbas Aliabadi for mismanaging water resources and failing to address structural corruption within the Energy Ministry.[54]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-6-2025