Iran Update, June 25, 2025
Information Cutoff: 2:00 PM ET
Preliminary intelligence assessments suggest the US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities caused serious damage to the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP). The New York Times published a June 25 report on a leaked, low-confidence US intelligence assessment of the recent US strikes on the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant.[1] The New York Times and other Western media outlets cite very little direct information from the report. Unspecified sources, in their characterization of the assessment, said that the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) assessed that the US and Israeli strikes.[2] Unspecified officials added that the findings indicated that US bunker-buster bombs sealed entrances to two unspecified nuclear sites but failed to “collapse their underground buildings.”[3]
The destruction of the centrifuges and equipment inside does not necessarily require the collapse of the facility itself. The Institute of Science and International Security, a nuclear nonproliferation think tank that has long studied the Iranian nuclear program, assessed that it was very likely the strikes destroyed or damaged most of the centrifuges at Fordow on the basis of the impact locations and the effects of the blast waves.[4] It is notable in the context of the leaked US assessments that the Institute did not assess the damage on the basis of whether facilities “collapsed.” This is consistent with claims by other unspecified officials to the New York Times, who said that the Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan nuclear facilities had all suffered “moderate to severe damage.”[5] CTP-ISW has no basis for forming an independent assessment of the damage from US and Israeli strikes at these three nuclear facilities.[6] Early Israeli assessments placed more confidence in the damage to enrichment facilities. The Israel Atomic Energy Commission separately assessed that the US strike on Fordow destroyed the site's critical infrastructure and “rendered the enrichment facility inoperable.”[7] US President Donald Trump told reporters on June 25 that Israeli agents concluded that Fordow suffered ”total obliteration” after visiting the site, suggesting that Israeli assessments have been formed with intelligence collected by Israeli agents in Iran. [8]
A conclusive battle damage assessment of nuclear facilities will take time, given the buried nature of Iran's nuclear sites and limited on-site access. A US nuclear weapons expert stated on June 24 that US and Israeli strikes likely destroyed 20,000 centrifuges at Natanz and Fordow and severely damaged weaponization infrastructure.[9] The expert stated that the early, low-confidence assessment ”focused too narrowly” on breakout timelines.[10] Breakout refers to the time required to enrich 90 percent enriched uranium (also known as weapons-grade uranium). Weaponization requires one to build nuclear weapons. Axios reported on June 25 that intercepted communications suggested Iranian military officials have delivered false situation reports to senior Iranian leaders to downplay the extent of the damage, citing an unspecified Israeli source.[11] This fact is notable because the leaked US intelligence assessment reportedly relied in part upon signals intelligence.[12]
Senior Iranian leadership suggested that Iran may not be willing to cooperate with various international organizations and treaties in the future, despite Iran's historic and current non-adherence to such agreements. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi and other senior Iranian officials have suggested in recent days that Iran may reconsider its stance on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).[13] Araghchi stated that the agreement “failed” to protect Iran's nuclear program despite years of Iran's compliance with the NPT.[14] A May 2025 International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) NPT Safeguards Agreement report found Iran's cooperation with the IAEA ”less than satisfactory” and raised concerns about undeclared Iranian nuclear sites and material.[15] Iran has threatened to withdraw from the NPT repeatedly over the past several years, but has not done so yet.[16]
Iranian parliament passed a bill on June 25 to suspend all cooperation with the IAEA.[17] Iran's parliamentary national security committee claimed on June 24 that the May 2025 IAEA report that accused Iran of failing to cooperate was inaccurate and served as a pretext for the Israeli air campaign. [18]The committee's June 24 statement recommended that Iran suspend cooperation with the IAEA.[19] Iran has already restricted IAEA oversight, including by withdrawing the certifications of several inspectors in September 2023 and barring other top inspectors in November 2024.[20] Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf stated that Iran could resume cooperation with the IAEA following a report from Iran's Atomic Energy Authority and the national security and foreign affairs committee.[21] The June 25 bill must be approved by Iran's Guardian Council, whose members are appointed by the Iranian Supreme Leader, to be entered into law.
The head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Mohammed Eslami, stated on June 24 that Iran is assessing the damage to its nuclear program and planning to resume operations.[22] Israel destroyed Iranian nuclear facilities and enrichment capacity with US support and killed key nuclear scientists who were critical to the development and weaponization of Iran's program. The Institute for Science and Security assessed that US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran have ”effectively destroyed” Iran's enrichment program and that it will take a ”long time” for Iran to restore its enrichment capabilities to pre-strike levels.[23] IRGC Major General Mohsen Rezaei stated during an interview on June 19 that Iran relocated its enriched material to a secure location to prevent it from being destroyed.[24] The Institute stated that Iran still retains stockpiles of 3 to 5 percent, 20 percent, and 60 percent enriched uranium.[25] The destruction of Iran's enrichment capabilities will make enriching uranium from 60 percent to 90 percent much slower, however.
Trump stated on June 25 that the United States would not allow Iran to rebuild its uranium facilities and that he would be willing to strike Iran again to prevent it from doing so.[26] The United States and Iran have maintained their negotiating positions from before the conflict on Iranian uranium enrichment. Iranian Vice President Mohammed Reza Aref reiterated on June 25 that Iran will not negotiate on Iran‘s right to enrich uranium on Iranian territory.[27] The United States has maintained its demand for Iran to maintain zero uranium enrichment capabilities.[28] The United States and Iran are expected to meet the week of June 29 to discuss a potential nuclear deal.[29] US President Donald Trump suggested that a nuclear deal with Iran may not be necessary due to damage inflicted on the nuclear program.[30]
The Iranian regime has taken steps to securitize the country, which likely reflects the regime's paranoia about Israeli infiltration and signals a shift to prioritization of counterintelligence. Iranian media reported that Iranian security forces have arrested at least 700 Iranians on political or security charges since the start of the Israel-Iran War on June 12.[31] The arrests include several individuals whom the regime characterized as “Mossad spies.”[32] Such arrests likely reflect Iranian recognition of the scale of Israeli infiltration and covert operations in Iran, which was revealed during Israel's opening attacks on Israel. Three Iranian senior officials told Reuters that Iran is concerned about internal unrest, especially in Kurdish areas, and Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and Basij units have been put on alert.[33] One source said Iranian forces have deployed to Iran's borders with Pakistan, Iraq, and Azerbaijan to prevent the infiltration of “terrorists.”[34] Large Iranian Kurdish separatist factions said that Iranian authorities have arrested several members of the Kurdish groups.[35] A member of the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan—one of several large Iranian Kurdish separatist factions—said IRGC units deployed to schools in Kurdish areas of Iran and conducted house searches for suspects and weapons following Israeli airstrikes in Iran on June 12. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei recently appointed Brigadier General Mohammad Karami as the IRGC Ground Forces commander, which further illustrates the regime's concerns about potential domestic unrest, given that Karami was previously involved in suppressing internal dissent.[36]
Iran's efforts to securitize the country (and the particular focus on Kurdish areas) may reflect the regime's concerns that Israel could exploit instability in Kurdish or minority areas to further infiltrate Iran. The Iranian regime has historically been concerned about unrest in Kurdish-dominated areas of northwestern Iran. A significant portion of the protests during the Mahsa Amini Protest movement in December 2022 occurred in cities in Tehran, Esfahan, Kurdistan, and West Azerbaijan provinces.[37] Kurdistan and West Azerbaijan provinces have a large Iranian Kurdish population that resonated with the protest movement. The recent arrests were reportedly concentrated in Kermanshah, Esfahan, Khuzestan, Fars, Lorestan, and Tehran provinces.[38] Iran has historically also accused Kurdish opposition groups and Israel of using Iraqi Kurdistan to facilitate operations into Iran. Iranian state media accused Kurdish opposition groups of helping Israel smuggle military equipment into Iran that Israel used in its January 2023 drone attack on a munitions factory in Esfahan, for example.[39]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-25-2025
Iran Update, June 26, 2025
Iran has made the recognition of its right to enrich uranium a precondition for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to be able to inspect Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran's Guardian Council approved a bill on June 26 that suspends Iran's cooperation with the IAEA and bars inspectors from accessing Iran's nuclear facilities.[18] The bill requires Iran to suspend cooperation with the IAEA until the IAEA recognizes Iran's right to enrich uranium.[19] The bill also states that the international community must show “full respect...[for the] security of nuclear sites and scientists,” likely to try to protect Iran's nuclear facilities from further US or Israeli strikes.[20] Iran has historically restricted IAEA oversight in Iran, including by withdrawing the certifications of several inspectors in September 2023 and barring other top inspectors in November 2024.[21]
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reiterated on June 26 that Iran will not “surrender” to the United States during his third televised message to the Iranian public since June 12.[22] Khamenei claimed that the United States seeks nothing less than Iran's “surrender” and emphasized that Iran will not give in to this demand.[23] Khamenei claimed that Iran's confrontation with the United States is no longer confined to uranium enrichment and the Iranian nuclear program.[24] Khamenei also claimed that Iran achieved a “victory” over Israel and the United States.[25] Khamenei said that the Iranian attack on al Udeid Airbase in Qatar was a “hard slap” that “can be repeated.”[26]
Moderate elements within the Iranian regime may be using Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s isolation during the Israel-Iran War to try to exert greater political influence in the regime. Unspecified Iranian officials told the New York Times on June 26 that Khamenei is sheltering in a bunker under strict security and with limited communication.[27] Khamenei has not made any public appearances since the start of the Israeli air campaign in Iran on July 12 except for three pre-recorded televised speeches.[28] Khamenei’s isolation has reportedly spurred efforts by more moderate elements of the regime to play a more significant role in regime decision-making.[29] Four unspecified senior Iranian officials said that senior Iranian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, Judiciary Chief Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei, and Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Abdol Rahim Mousavi, are part of a faction that supports a pragmatic and diplomatic approach to the conflict with the United States and Israel.[30] Ultraconservative politician and Paydari (Stability) Front leader Saeed Jalili and other conservative officials have openly challenged this pragmatic faction and opposed the ceasefire with Israel.[31] Jalili has criticized Pezeshkian and Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi for agreeing to the ceasefire with Israel and signaling openness to renewed nuclear negotiations with the United States.[32] Members of Jalili’s faction include hardliners in the Iranian Parliament and unspecified senior Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commanders.
The New York Times report about pragmatic and hardline factions vying for decision-making authority follows earlier indications of internal fissures in the regime. Opposition media reported on June 21 that former President Hassan Rouhani met with senior clerics in Qom to encourage them to persuade Khamenei to drop Iran's demand for uranium enrichment on Iranian soil and accept a ceasefire with Israel. Rouhani reportedly framed these efforts as a way to “save” the Islamic Republic.[33] Supreme Leader adviser Ali Larijani and Expediency Discernment Council head Sadegh Amoli Larijani reportedly attempted to contact Khamenei to advocate for a ceasefire but were unsuccessful.[34] The emergence of moderate elements during Khamenei’s isolation suggests that these elements may be using Khamenei’s absence to try to play a larger and more meaningful role in regime decision-making, particularly as these elements are typically sidelined by hardliners during normal times.
International Atomic Energy Agency Director Rafael Grossi stated on June 26 that centrifuges at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP) are “no longer working” due to the US and Israeli strikes on the site.[35] Grossi stated that centrifuges are very “delicate” and that “even small vibrations can destroy them.”[36] The United States dropped 12 30,000-lb GBU-57 massive ordnance penetrator (MOP) bunker-buster bombs on Fordow.[37] A GBU-57 MOP can carry 5,000 pounds of explosives.[38] The six entry points of the US bunker-buster bombs at Fordow were above two weak points, and the bombs would have detonated within the facility. The Institute for Science and International Security previously assessed that the bomb blast would have been channeled by the centrifuge cascade hall's side walls, which would have destroyed all of the installed centrifuges in the hall.[39] The IAEA reported in May 2025 that FFEP houses six operating IR-1 and seven operating advanced IR-6 cascades.[40] Each cascade is comprised of approximately 160 to 170 centrifuges. Fordow was responsible for producing nearly 90 percent of Iran's 60 percent enriched uranium stockpile in the last IAEA reporting period from February to May 2025.[41]
Satellite imagery from June 24 showed damage to access roads leading to Fordow due to Israeli strikes.[42] Israel conducted airstrikes on June 23 targeting roads leading to FFEP in order to “disrupt” access to the site.[43] CTP-ISW previously assessed that Israeli strikes on access roads to Fordow may prevent Iran from being able to assess and repair damage at Fordow or move materials from the site to other locations.[44]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-26-2025