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Iran Update Special Report, June 15, 2025, Morning Edition

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has targeted several nuclear sites in Tehran since CTP-ISW’s last data cutoff on June 14.
A US weapons expert reported on June 15 that, if Israel does not render the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP) inoperable, then Iran would be able to produce enough weapons-grade uranium (WGU) for nine nuclear weapons by the end of the first month using its pre-attack 60% enriched uranium stockpile.
The IDF has also targeted several military and defense industrial sites outside Tehran since CTP-ISW’s last data cutoff on June 14.
Israel expanded its ongoing strike campaign against Iran on June 14 by attacking critical Iranian energy infrastructure.
Iran has conducted two waves of ballistic missile attacks targeting Israel from Iranian territory since CTP-ISW’s last data cutoff on June 14.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has continued to strike Iranian missile launchers, which is likely limiting the scale of the Iranian response to Israel.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-special-report-june-15-2025-morning-edition

Iran Update Special Report, June 15, 2025, Evening Edition
Information Cutoff: 6:00 PM ET
The IDF expanded its air campaign into Iran by beginning to strike regime institutions, including some related to internal security and social control. This comes the day after the IDF began striking energy infrastructure. The degradation of the Iranian coercive apparatus coupled with energy shortages could destabilize the regime.
The IDF conducted its furthest strike eastward as part of its efforts to establish air superiority over Iran. The IDF specifically struck an Artesh airbase around Mashhad in northeastern Khorasan Razavi Province. Most of the Israeli strikes targeting air defenses have been around western and central Iran thus far.
Iran has continued its missile campaign targeting Israel, having launched 10 total barrages at the time of this writing. Two of these barrages occurred in recent hours. The IDF has intercepted around 92 percent of the missiles that Iran has fired at Israel thus far, according to an Israeli official speaking to Reuters.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-special-report-june-15-2025-evening-edition

Russian journalist Georgy Zotov:

Many people now have one question: why does Israeli intelligence feel at home in Iran?

No, it's not about the Stirlitzs with their excellent Persian language and the uniform of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The answer is incredibly banal: it's about money.

In 2024, one of the leaders of the Hamas Politburo, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in Tehran. There are two versions of this death: that a bomb was planted in his room, and that a short-range projectile was used from Iranian territory. There is a possibility that Haniyeh’s security guard was involved, and they even announced the amount paid to him: 6 million dollars. Whether this is true or not, I don't know. But I have been to Iran many times, and the corruption there amazed even me after living in Russia. They continue to take from us, but not everything. They take EVERYTHING there. Back in 2002, I didn't like the system. They give you a press visa. It's more expensive than a tourist visa. You have to come to the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance and pay for the issuance of accreditation. You are required to work with a licensed agency for receiving foreign press for $200 per day, otherwise you CANNOT be in Iran. I knocked the price down to $100, and that was the most I could do. It was always like that, except for the last time. Then they let me into Iran without the services of an agency: apparently, there were some concessions.

This is how they work. I came to the city of Rasht to do a report on how black caviar is being prepared in Iran. The company said that my letter from the government was so-so, and they would send it back (!) to Tehran for verification. How long will it take - who knows. No explanation that the report had already been approved helped - like, what if the letter was fake. At the same time, they began to demand $1,000 from me in personal conversations for the report. I did not pay them, and there was no report. In the future, this was repeated many times. You have something approved by the press service, but give me money for gas, otherwise we will not go. They demanded payment under any pretext, everywhere and always.

It would seem that Iran is an Islamic republic. Strict Sharia norms, medieval punishments, a total ban on booze: except for Armenians, who are allowed to make wine for church ceremonies. But the country has a huge bootlegging network for selling alcohol. It is easy to find everywhere, and everyone knows where to get it. Bootleggers pay the police, and feel great. The same is with prostitution. I was offered women in any hotel, although the lady herself is legally stoning to death for such a thing. “They pay off,” they answered me with a grin. “Both the police and Sharia judges take it.”

The official exchange rate for the dollar is 42,000 Iranian rials. But currency dealers buy it from tourists for 920,000 rials and more. Hand-to-hand currency transactions are not welcome, but I always knew where it was more profitable to hand over dollars. The police do not interfere with this, they are well-fed.

Bribes exist in almost any sphere. This is the norm. Therefore, Israel felt like a fish in water in Iran. It could hire agents everywhere for good money, which was used to destroy the Iranian air defense on the very first day of the attack. Mossad is guided by two rules - what cannot be bought for money can be bought for a lot of money + any, even the most fortified fortress, can be taken by a single donkey loaded with gold. This is what happened. Naturally, the elderly spiritual (and secular too) leader of Iran, 86-year-old Khamenei, does not know about this. He is ill, he is not told bad news. He sincerely thought that everything was wonderful, and all the laws of the Islamic Republic were observed with delight.

Until June 13 came.

And it turned out that the Israelis have long known perfectly well where all the generals live, where the best fighters are located, and where the air defense systems are installed. And all this disappeared in an instant. Simply because the Israelis pay, and pay generously. And the people who take money from them think about patriotism and love for the country last of all.

Although, I was wrong here.
They don't think about it at all.

https://t.me/darkzotovland/5156

Iran Update Special Report, June 16, 2025, Morning Edition

We will produce two updates per day while conditions in the Middle East warrant it. This first update will focus on reports about the strike campaign and identify the areas struck between 6:00PM ET on June 15 and 6:00AM ET on June 16. The second update will cover all events over the previous 24 hours and refine our earlier reports about the strike campaign.

maps https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-special-report-june-16-2025-morning-edition

Iran Update Special Report, June 16, 2025, Evening Edition
Information Cutoff: 6:00PM ET

Iran has maintained its negotiating position on its nuclear program during the Israeli campaign, meaning that Iran does not appear willing to negotiate an end to the Iran-Israel War yet. Western media reported on June 16 that Iran is seeking to “de-escalate tensions” and quoted Arab officials who said that Iranian officials said that Tehran is open to returning to negotiations if the United States does not join the strike.[1] Arab “intermediaries” said that Iran is “not ready to make concessions in nuclear talks,” however.[2] Public statements from Iranian leaders support this claim by Arab intermediaries. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian continued to threaten “severe” responses if the United States failed to restrain Israel and separately defended Iran's “right” to peaceful nuclear energy and research.[3] The Iranian parliament also began to build a proposal to leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty.[4] These responses are presumably non-starters for the United States and Israel. An unspecified Israeli official said prior to the strikes that Iran must end its uranium enrichment at a minimum, which is a position that the Trump administration has also maintained during the negotiations.[5]

An unspecified Iranian diplomat shared a personal, unofficial message with an Iranian diaspora publication that claimed Iranian leaders are willing to “give up uranium enrichment to preserve the regime.”[8] These statements do not reflect official Iranian government positions. The diplomat claimed that the Artesh and IRGC will “lose control of the situation” and that the regime is “ready to negotiate” if it can achieve “face-saving solutions.” He said that he was not speaking as a representative of the Iranian government.

Iran likely calculates that it can impose costs on Israel for Israel's campaign against Iran, but Iran's attacks have been mostly ineffective and do not appear to be influencing Israeli decision making. Iranian officials have continued to threaten a “severe response” to Israeli strikes. Iranian officials appear to design these statements to deter Israel by suggesting Iran can impose costs on Israel, but the lack of Iranian success in actually doing so will presumably diminish the deterrent effect of the statements over time. Iranian missile and drone attacks on Israel have not achieved strategic effects that would influence Israeli decision making. The lack of Iranian success in imposing costs on Israel will presumably further diminish the deterrent effect of the statements over time.

Iran's calculations about continuing the war may change in the coming weeks as Israeli strikes expand and threaten the regime. An Israeli outlet reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin told the Iranian supreme leader that the survival of the Iranian regime is under threat.[9] Putin made the call after a conversation with US President Donald Trump about Russian mediation between Iran and Israel. Israeli strikes have recently expanded to target Iranian internal security and social control institutions, which could threaten regime stability. The current Israeli strikes are probably the most serious threat to regime survival that the Iranian regime has faced since 1979. The supreme leader and his allies could conclude that offering concessions and ending uranium enrichment is necessary if it saves the regime.

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) battle damage assessments indicate that Israeli strikes likely damaged or destroyed several thousand centrifuges at Natanz.[14] Satellite imagery confirmed that Israeli airstrikes destroyed the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant (PFEP) and damaged electrical substations and support buildings critical to power supply across the facility.[15] IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi told BBC that there is a “great probability” that approximately 14,000 operational centrifuges located at one of the underground halls have been “severely damaged if not destroyed altogether” due to the “sudden loss of external power.”[16] Grossi stated that there has been “very little or no damage” at Fordow. The Fordow site is especially hardened against strikes, as much of the facility extends deep underground.

Israeli airstrikes have reportedly destroyed approximately one-third of Iran's ballistic missile stockpiles and launchers. Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Spokesperson Effie Defrin stated that the IDF has destroyed one-third of Iran's ballistic missile launch capabilities.[17] The IDF Air Force said that it has destroyed more than 120 missile launchers since the beginning of Israel's operations.[18] Israeli officials also said that Iran has fired a total of 370 ballistic missiles at Israel as of June 16 at 10:12 am ET, with approximately 30 to 40 missiles in each barrage.[19] Iran reportedly had between 750 and 1,000 ballistic missiles capable of hitting Israel prior to the conflict, which suggests that Iran has expended nearly half or a third of this ballistic missile stockpile.[20] Iran's missile barrages are notably smaller than its previous attack on Israel in October 2024, when Iran launched approximately 100 missiles per barrage.[21] Israeli attacks on its missile launchers and bases are likely hampering Iran's ability to launch large barrages.

more + images and maps https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-special-report-june-16-2025-evening-edition