Russian officials are continuing coordination with Iran ahead of the Iranian retaliatory strike against Israel out of concern for Russian interests in the region. Reuters reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a message via Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu that Iran should act with restraint and avoiding targeting civilians when retaliating against Israel.[28] An unspecified Iranian diplomat claimed to IranWire that Russia is opposed to Iranian strikes that could lead to the death of civilians due to the large number of Russian citizens who live in Israel. The report did not make clear how an Iranian official would understand the calculus behind the Russian decision making.[29]
Russia is also reportedly assisting Iranian efforts to improve its air defenses against Israeli attacks, according to the New York Times.[30] The New York Times, citing two unspecified Iranian officials including an IRGC member, stated that Russia began delivering advanced radars and air-defense systems to Iran.[31] Iranian media has previously reported that Iran sought to acquire Russian air defense systems to improve Iran's air defense network and defend against Israeli attack, according to the New York Times.
The US Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) highlighted a “notable increase” in Iranian statements on Iran's ability to produce a nuclear weapon, corroborating previous CTP-ISW reporting. ODNI published the 2024 annual report in compliance with the “Nuclear Weapons Capability and Terrorism Monitoring Act of 2022” on July 23.[32] The ODNI assessed that ”Iran probably will consider installing more centrifuges” and increasing its enriched uranium stockpile ”up to 90 percent in response to additional sanctions, attacks, or censure against its nuclear program.”[33] The ODNI also emphasized a ”notable increase” of Iranian officials’ statements on Iran's nuclear activities, including their ability to produce a nuclear weapon. This corroborates previous CTP-ISW reporting since May, which has noted that senior Iranian officials have normalized public discussions about Iran's ability to procure a nuclear weapon.[34]
The death of a Houthi drone expert responsible for training Iranian-backed Iraqi militias in the July 30 US strike in Iraq indicates a possible Iranian-backed effort to improve the targeting capabilities of the Iranian-backed Iraqi militias against both US forces and Israel.[21] The United States conducted a self-defense strike that killed a senior Houthi commander and drone expert at Kataib Hezbollah's Jurf al Sakhr facility in Iraq on July 30.[22] The Houthis confirmed that the strike killed the commander, who had traveled to Iraq to train other Iranian-backed Iraqi militias in drone tactics.[23] An Iraqi journalist also reported that four other Houthi fighters died in the strike and that all five Houthis were buried in Wadi al Salam in Najaf, Iraq.[24] The Houthis have years of experience conducting successful drone attacks targeting facilities in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates that are protected by US air defense systems, such as the Patriot and THAAD.[25] The Houthis more recently have proven that their drones can evade Israeli air defense systems, at least in isolated incidents.[26] This is notable given the relative lack of success Iraqi-backed militias have had in targeting US positions in the region. Houthi instruction may therefore be aimed at improving the success of Iranian-backed Iraqi militia attacks against both the United States and Israel.
The Houthi decision to deploy this commander to Iraq to train Iraqi militias suggests that Iran and the Houthis seek to rapidly accelerate the training of these militias. Iran and the Houthis could have presumably decided to send small numbers of Iraqi militia members to Yemen for training as part of a “train-the-trainer”-style program. The drone expert's presence in Iraq, however, would have enabled him to train much larger numbers of Iraqi militia members much more rapidly, allowing the knowledge to be disseminated directly without an intermediary trainer. The Iraqi journalist also reported that the Houthis were coordinating with Kataib Hezbollah, Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba, Ansarallah al Awfiya, and other Iranian-backed militias, which would be consistent with an effort to train larger numbers of fighters and Iraqi militias more efficiently.[27]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-7-2024
Iran Update, August 8, 2024
CTP-ISW continues to assess that a coordinated large-scale drone and missile attack on Israel by Iran and its Axis of Resistance is the most likely Iranian response to Israel’s killing of senior axis leaders.[1] CTP-ISW assessed on July 31 that a coordinated large-scale drone attack resembling the Iranian April 2024 attack on Israel was one of the most dangerous but not most likely courses of action.[2] The Iranian regime’s public descriptions of a direct attack on Israel, including statements from senior Iranian officials and armed forces-affiliated outlets, caused CTP-ISW to judge that the most dangerous course of action was more likely to occur. (The most dangerous course of action Iran and its partners could pursue would actually be a full-scale attack on Israel and on US forces, but CTP-ISWs assesses that neither Iran nor Lebanese Hezbollah is at all likely to pursue such a course of action.) CTP-ISW is providing a forecast of the likelihood of a given Iranian action based on available data in an open-source environment. CTP-ISW is not offering a definitive prediction that Iran and its proxies and partners will undertake any specific action.
Senior Iranian security officials and an Iranian armed forces-affiliated outlet have discussed a possible Iranian and Hezbollah drone and missile strike in notable detail, including discussions about the Iranian partners involved, lists of possible targets, and descriptions of methods to increase the likelihood of a successful strike.[3] Defa Press, an outlet run by an Iranian institution that reports directly to the Iranian Armed Forces General Staff (AFGS), published a list of potential targets and methods to increase the success of the attack, which increased CTP-ISW’s confidence that Iran was considering a large-scale attack.[4] The AFGS would be responsible for planning and conducting a retaliatory strike against Israel. Statements from Iranian decisionmakers have also increased CTP-ISW’s confidence that Iran will choose this dangerous course of action. Iranian AFGS Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri stated on August 1 that both Iran and the Axis of Resistance will be involved in the retaliation, indicating that Iran will directly strike Israel.[5] Supreme National Security Council secretary and acting Iranian foreign affairs minister both suggested that Iran would directly participate in the retaliation in statements on August 1 and August 7 respectively.[6]
Divergent goals and priorities between Iran and Hezbollah could create friction between the two and disagreement on the timing and coordination of an attack. Unspecified US officials told Axios on August 5 that the US intelligence community expects Iran and its Axis of Resistance to conduct two waves of attacks against Israel.[14] Unspecified sources ”familiar with the intelligence” speaking to CNN have similarly claimed that Hezbollah is prepared to strike Israel independent of Iran.[15] These divisions may be appearing because Hezbollah and Iran have different constraints and goals for a retaliatory attack on Israel. Both groups want to establish deterrence with Israel but may have differing urgency. Hezbollah may feel increasing pressure to retaliate given Israeli operations targeting Hezbollah commanders in southern Lebanon and Syria since the targeted killing of Fuad Shukr in Beirut on July 30.[16] Hezbollah is also constrained by the Lebanese political scene. Hezbollah leaders are likely additionally considering how a Hezbollah retaliatory strike on Israel will affect if and when the IDF launches a major military operation into Lebanon. A Hezbollah retaliation that triggers an Israeli ground operation could be perceived as dragging all of Lebanon into Hezbollah’s war. Iranian decisionmakers are not under the same temporal pressure as Hezbollah given that Israel has not continued to conduct attacks in Iran or against Iranian targets since killing Haniyeh on July 31. Iranian leaders are likely incentivized to carefully and slowly assemble a strike package that both hurts Israel and avoids escalation into a wider war.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-8-2024