1. Yes. Russia keeps threatening to use nukes if Ukraine fights on in the occupied region. Their on-message Duma deputies keep going on national TV talking about nuking Europe and America. All it takes is a fallout cloud to drift over Poland and Article 5 gets triggered.
2. Yes. Russia and Ukraine must accept partition of the densely populated Ukrainian held areas of the contested oblasts from rhe coastal areas held by Russia, and create new Checkpoint Charlies. The alternative is Russia committing to the aerial and possibly nuclear destruction of large, densely populated cities like Zaporizhzhia.
3. The cost, long term consequences, and likelihood of a nuclear weapons exchange is worst case scenario, the rebuild cost of the entire Crimean District is another. No matter which way you cut it, a total victory for Russia will cost trillions over decades.
4. Yes. “Ignore it” didn’t work in 2008 when Russia first violated the political independence of Ukraine and Georgia, appeasement after Georgia motivated Russia to repeat in Crimea and the Donbas, and Russia has delivered not one element of any commitment in any peace process.
5. Consequences of inaction as well as actions need to be considered. Risk assessments look at cause, effect, immediate impact, effects, likelihoods, and “crystallization”.
6. They’re split. Hold a referendum.
7. There’s far more condemnation of Russia’s actions than condemnation of UK, USA and NATO members in the region for defending Ukraine.
Finally, our joint obligations to defend the self determination, sovereignty and territorial integrity of not just Ukraine but all signatories to the CIS members and Budapest Memorandum signatories based on borders agreed at the end of the Cold War is embedded in multiple multilateral treaties.
That Russia is also a signatory to.
Russia is violating the UN Charter, the Budapest Memorandum, Minsk 1 and 2, the CIS Charter, and multiple security guarantees.
We are complying with them.
Even countries that are pro Russia and no friends of the West are on the list of nations condemning Russia’s actions.
Overall conclusion: this is like Gulf War 1. Even countries that liked Saddam Hussein and didn’t like America knew the invasion of Kuwait crossed lines. Maybe the answer is for an international coalition comprised of countries not acting in America’s interests, working with the UK and USA....
Oh, wait. That’s already happened. America and the UK are not isolated.
Thanks for posting. Good comments.
Too bas there’s not more of that on both sides of the issue. But too many propaganda pushing mouth-breathers are involved on a regional and national scale.