” if the voter is LIKELY to vote, it doesn’t change the percentages that vote in relationship to registration numbers”
OF COURSE IT DOES! If Republicans are more likely to come out to vote than Democrats, you need to sample a higher percentage of them compared to registration. That is what defines their greater enthusiasm.
Suppose you have 50:50 split between Republican and Democrat, but Republicans are more enthusiastic. The people who then CAST VOTES will be maybe 53:47 Republican to Democrat.
No it doesn’t, see post 89.
Your showing utter ignorance with this post.
The turnout in large elections does not change beyond the voter registration numbers... “enthusiasm” does not change turnout by 10% in a statewide race in a state.
In a small, local election with a small voter base, you can see a few percentage points variation for registration numbers, in large scale races, in all but the rarest of exceptions the electorate turnout mirrors the registration numbers with a deviation of maybe a point at most.
Need to stop making things up, or swallowing lies. Because it’s just not true.
1% is a significant amount when talking about an electorate base of 8 million voters... but trying to argue 3-4% swings in a statewide election of a populace state is anjectly false.