Posted on 09/26/2022 10:27:23 AM PDT by Signalman
Wow!
That is a tragic story for you MIL.
The market (under normal conditions) always comes back and with a vengeance.
My MIL is going to have to go back to work to make ends meet. She’s 75. I know she’s not the only one in that scenario.
>A lot of people at my work are converting their 401k’s out of stocks.
That’ll explain the dump today right there.
I think my DRIP stuff paid today so it’s buying more at this price point.
To retirees, and seniors near retiremwnt it is. Yer another great reason to keep Congress and the Senate, Congress and governors mansions filled with Democrat, New Reset, Communist, Pigs.
time to break out my old 28K hat again... woo hoo... i thought i would only get to wear it once.
I'll break out by DOW 10K license plates.
soon... don’t rush it too much...
let biden enjoy his accomplishments.
Regular gasoline up $0.60 / gallon here overnight; near $5 again.
How do you know the real buying opportunity isn’t 20,000 points lower?
“If in the highly unlikely event the market does crash to zero, I will be in the same boat as everybody else. Having retirement accounts decimated will be the least of our worries if that happens.”
True, true. There’s a bottom... and it’s likely well above zero. For the market to go to zero, we’d have to be in a situation of all-out nuclear war or something equally horrific.
But barring armageddon, zero simply ain’t happening. There are certain companies in the Dow 30 right now that are darned near indestructible. Like Coca-Cola, McDonald’s, Apple, Visa, etc. How bad would the world economy have to get to put any of those completely out of business? Oh, sure, a haircut of 50% or more is within the realm of possibility, but total failure? No, it ain’t happening.
When I say "if the market goes to zero, it will be the least of our problems", it's to illustrate the unlikeliness of that ever happening.
Another thing to consider is that just 13 years ago (2009), the Dow Jones had an average closing of just under 9,000.
Since then, the Dow Jones has more than tripled and even after this year's bloodbath, it still stands triple what it was just 13 years ago. Even if it drops 10,000 more points, it will still be double what it was in 2009.
What if I went back in time to 2009 and told you all that the Dow Jones would double over the next 13 years. Most of us would be pretty happy with those results.
I lived through Black Monday in October 1987, as a stockbroker for now defunct EF Hutton. Prompted me to reconsider putting my accounting degree to use in a different field...lol.
That article uses Shiller P/E ratio when it suits him with carefully cut dates but traditionally metrics otherwise. S&P 500 is trading in line with historical average multiple. The shiller index assumes we are in late stages in cycle rather than end stages of recession and about to begin a new cycle - or in between.
“Isn’t that the story of why Nixon finally ditched the gold standard? One of the European countries, France I believe, wanted to repatriate their gold. “
It was due to the effects of something called the Triffin Dilemma.
Basically that says that a country would have to choose between an activist foreign policy or using their money as the world’s reserve currency. We tried to do both and problems began showing up as early as the Eisenhower administration.
Choosing the dollar as the reserve currency after WWII resulted in foreign central banks wanting to hold dollar balances. They accumulated basically all that we could cover with our gold stock, meaning that we didn’t have enough dollars for our domestic economy.
We expanded anyway. This resulted in a two tier gold market throughout the 1960s, one actually reflecting the inflation that was occurring, and the other an artificial “official” rate between governments. The French were no fools and wouldn’t play along.
Keynes had warned against using the dollar as reserve currency during the Bretton Woods Conference, and suggested using a basket of currencies he called the “bancor”. Maybe if we had done that the link of the dollar and gold would have held.
Thanks, I’m not familiar with the Shiller index other than the housing one and wouldn’t have spotted it.
“After the Crash of ‘29, the Dow didn’t recover to its previous high for 25 years.”
The US money supply collapsed from 1930-1933. It shrank by one third, a massive deflation. The 1930s Fed didn’t know how to combat that. Today they’d use QE.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
28,725.51 −500.10 (1.71%)today
Sep 30, 5:55 PM EDT
GREATEST ECONOMY EVER
More Democrat success
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