Putin will declare war against Ukraine by the end of the week and Belarus will be obligated by treaty to join Putin’s war.
Yep. He’s got no choice. Russia’s occupying Potemkin army is crumbling. Smashed to pieces by Ukrainian farmers and miners. They don’t have the units to cover both the south and Donbas fronts. So he rushed the Stalinist referendums and will now threaten to nuke Ukraine.
The smartest military move Putin could make would be to direct forces in Belarus to attack Kiev again to relieve pressure in the East. Not certain Lukashenko will let him do that again, as that already triggered some sabotage actions and grumbling in the Belarussian armed forces.