Here in So. California, I expect we will see many foreclosures on the cracker boxes that sold for double and triple value. If people lose teir income, they won’t be able to make that $4K to $5K payment…and if that doesn’t do them in, the property taxes will.
We have 7 million more jobs available than on the market. We’d need a severe recession just to bring the job market into equilibrium. Meanwhile, the buyers the last 2.5 years have had the biggest downpayments as a % of purchase price and highest credit scores in history and homeowners have record equity as a % of value today. There is no big foreclosure wave coming in any normal recession or even severe recession scenario - it would need to be like depression level event, in which case housing will still hold up better than nearly every other investment.