Look for Turkey to try to reassert itself in that region.
“Look for Turkey to try to reassert itself in that region.”
That could very well happen.
Armenia is tight with Russia, whereas Azerbaijan (which declared independence from the USSR back in 1991) has pretty good relations with the US. Azerbaijan controls the Baku oil fields.
The relationship between Armenia and Azerbaijan is...complicated. They take turns playing the West and Russia off against each other, as they are both (Armenia and Azerbaijan) seeking to shake down one or the other (Russia or the West). Historically, Armenia and Russia have had fairly close ties. Azerbaijan, on the other hand, was a reluctant Soviet Socialist Republic.
Turkey and Armenia have a very bloody history, and there is great animosity between the two.
This could get interesting.
Wouldn't be a surprise at all. The Ottoman Empire extended all the way to what is now Georgia and Chechnya, and we know Erdogan fantasizes of a neo-Ottoman Empire the same way Putin fantasizes of a neo-Russian Empire. The Caucuses have been a source of conflict going back to the Ottoman and Russian Empires. As they say, while the cat's away, the mice will play.