If Russia continues to press the invasion and are willing to lose whatever it takes then I imagine you are correct. But what kind of victory will it be. My big takeaway is Russia was considered 2 or third most powerful ground and air military now I am not sure they are the most powerful in the region. If they assault like they did a nation like Poland( which I believe would be impossible now but lest say before Ukraine invasion)they they would lose. Of course there is the nuclear option but that is another discussion
Looking ahead, who benefits the most from a weakened Russia? My bet is Turkey. A strong Soviet Union/Russia was the only thing keeping Turkey from trying to re-establish The Ottoman Empire.