[fidelis]

I agree. There is so much disinformation surrounding this conflict, the smoke has to clear considerably before any claim by either side can be believed.

[Bruce Campbells Chin]

About the only thing we can know for sure are the big picture conclusions. It was anticipated before the War began that Russia would blow through Ukraine in a matter of days. That clearly did not happen. The Russian attack on Kiev clearly failed, and they have had much heavier than expected losses.

At the same time, it is undisputed that they have gained significant portions of Ukrainian territory, and to this point, Ukraine has been ineffective at recovering that territory. You could perhaps give them an exception for recovering land around Kharkiv.

To me, the recent stagnation strongly suggests that both sides have exhausted most of their offensive capability. I do think that basic examination of a map shows Ukraine has an advantage when it comes to Kherson. The Russians have an unsupported salient across a very wide river, and that just does not seem sustainable in the long term.

Right now, all we can do is sit back and wait until the picture around Kherson becomes more clear, and that likely will take weeks at a minimum. Until then, it doesn't make sense to bieve anything from either side.