There were plenty of awful false flags by the Ukrainian side, some specifically to draw others into conflict, like Zagreb attack by the converted IG drone. There was a particularly bloody Kramatorsk railway station bombing. Both attacks couldn’t have been made by anyone but Ukraine.
Regarding the power plant, why should the Russians do it?
You are simply ignoring the evolution of Ukrainian propaganda.
The plant has been under Russian control since March.
The shelling started in July supported by stories that the Russians are using the station to store ammunition and use it as an artillery base.
That allegedly made it a legit target.
Then someone realized that the story stinks and it evolved into that the station “manned by the Ukrainian workers” is shelled by the Russians.
Now it is the Russians who are planning to bomb it from inside.
Who are you trying to fool?
(facepalm) What makes you think there has to be a WHY? The WHAT and the HOW are vastly more relevant questions. When it comes to nuclear accidents, no matter what cause or what effect, they loosely boil down to one of three general scenarios.
- intentional trigger (deliberately doing "something"),
- unintentional (making "something" happen by accident.)
- cascade (a chain of events results in "something")
The professional Ukrainian civilian support staff at all the nuclear plants in Ukraine know what they're doing, and why. They know what the failure modes and effects are. They've studied failure.
The Russian soldiers who occupy the plants probably don't even know there was an accident at Chernobyl.
That's the main reason why the Russian commanders keep the civilian support staff around. It's also why the grunts following the orders have no idea how important that monitoring job is.
One of the lead safety engineers at Zaporizhzhia worked at Chernobyl for years during the cleanup. So when the Russians went into Chernobyl, screwed around with the safety systems, and started digging trenches in lethally irradiated areas with warning signs in Russian all around the area, the civilians in the atomic energy industry were understandably aghast. It's completely incomprehensible. There is no professional armed force, anywhere in the developed world, that has absolutely no idea what a nuclear accident is. Any Western modern armed force that stepped foot into a nuclear power plant would ruddy know, you don't screw around with nuclear. They'd also know why.
But actually, when it comes to Russia, this isn't even unexepected. It's just how their military minds and chains of command work in the context of them being literally not allowed to think for themselves without a political angle steering their actions.
Most of the grunts in the Russian army have absolutely no idea what really happened at Chernobyl in the 80s, or what happened to the Kursk, or what happened when a village got decimated by an anthrax leak from a Russian biolab. Because the political interference and corruption in the command structures absolutely won't allow those things to be dissected. Russia has FIFTY YEARS of "previous" and not only does it ensure political ambition overrides competence, it also ensures ground forces are naturally incurious if not oblivious, and blindly follow orders.
THAT is why Russia has stationed troops stationed at the NPPs who don't even know what radioactivity is and probably wouldn't even protest if they WERE asked to blow it up.
Given how the last few weeks have given us multiple examples of unforced errors resulting in big explosions in Russian ammo dumps without any assistance from the Ukes, having even a small ammo dump at a nuclear power plant presents quite a large number of plausible "accident" and "cascade" scenarios even if you buy the idea that the Russians aren't QUITE tonto enough to do it deliberately.
Out of interest, do you know how many times a nuclear first strike by Russia has been averted by very brave people at or near the very bottom of the chain of command exercising sound judgement DESPITE getting explict orders from high-ups and political officers? That was only possible because Russia actually did put professional, intelligent, trained people in those positions. These days, Russia just throws an amnesty bribe at some guy who's serving a life sentence to follow orders and not ask questions.
"You are simply ignoring the evolution of Ukrainian propaganda."
No, there clearly is propaganda on both sides. I'm talking about measurable risks, and empirical facts. It is an empirical fact of life that cock-ups are easier to commit than conspiracy. It is also an empirical fact that Russians in highly risky locations like biolabs and nuclear power plants have done INCREDIBLY dangerous things throughout history, simply because, in Russia, expertise and safety just aren't as important to Russia as political compliance.
"The shelling started in July supported by stories that the Russians are using the station to store ammunition and use it as an artillery base."
Yes. Ukraine shelled the town AROUND the plant, and targeted artillery OUTSIDE the buildings. It's not quite the same as making the buildings themselves a military target - and the Geneva Convention says the onus is on the OCCUPANTS of the buildings not to use them as military launchpads in the first place.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/08/11/world/ukraine-russia-nuclear-plant-rockets/
Remember when FR had the conversations about whether or not the Russians were being reckless when they were firing rockets at Chernobyl? While it's ostensibly a reckless thing to do, and never a good look, it wasn't ACTUALLY that dangerous (unless they hit control centers). The far more risky things Russia did were digging trenches and working the safety monitors to the point of exhaustion while tampering with the power to the cooling system.
For the same reasons, Ukraine shooting at targets in Energodar and AROUND the NPP reactor buildings is reckless, but at least they're not storing munitions inside the engine rooms, messing with the civilian safety crews, and messing with the cooling system. If they were doing that, that'd be REALLY dangerous.
It's the Russians who're doing that.
Now it is the Russians who are planning to bomb it from inside.
That's a very lame caricature. Do you understand the difference between cock-up and conspiracy, or are you Russian?