If the current House vote holds, the 2 Pubbies, Palin and Begich, will together get 2/3rds of the vote but lose to the Dem. Palin’s in the lead over Begich, who should drop out so they don’t give the seat to the Dem.
At least The Murk will only face one, conservative Pubbie in the general.
The special election is RCV. People voted for multiple candidates. From that data we can’t tell at all who has an advantage. If all of the Palin and Begich voters voted for the other candidate as the second choice, a Republican should win.