Worked with a former Squid who said at the time, that this looked like an accident on a known training range.
I remember a couple from Long Island who were having a party on their patio on the night the plane went down. Somebody had taken a picture of the couple with the night sky in the background but you could clearly see a bright orange trail behind the plane. They showed the picture on the Today show. IIRC, immediately after that segment, FBI showed up and confiscated their picture.
I am not sure whether it was enemy fire or friendly fire, but I know the explanation of some little thing blowing the plane to smithereens was just too pat.