Given that danger of a total collapse, I think the danger of a Taiwan invasion is pretty high.
This is not good news! If China is falling apart—they need to have something to unite the people—Like a Big War—a war to take Taiwan! Or even a war with Japan (an old hated enemy). Or even the USA and the west. Even WW III would unite her people against the common foe. A Limited Nuke war—kept conventional would be world changing. Just cutting trade would hit us hard. If I was China— Hit Us at Guam and Okinawa Two nukes would end our power. Drones could swarm and take out our ships and a cyber attack cripple us by taking down our grid. The war would be only 100 days long.