Posted on 08/03/2022 7:50:27 AM PDT by BeauBo
The OPEC+ group gave the go-ahead to lift their oil production targets for September by 100,000 bpd...
Today's OPEC+ meeting is the first meeting since the group decided to roll back by the end of August all the cuts from May 2020, when the current agreement started.
Analysts had expected the alliance to endorse either flat targets for September compared to August, or a slight increase.
Ahead of the meeting on Wednesday, the U.S. Department of the State approved on Tuesday a possible Foreign Military Sale to Saudi Arabia—OPEC's top producer—of PATRIOT MIM-104E Guidance Enhanced Missile-Tactical Ballistic Missiles (GEM-T) and related equipment for an estimated cost of $3.05 billion. The State Department also cleared a possible Foreign Military Sale to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for an estimated cost of $2.245 billion...
Higher oil production was one of the reasons for President Biden's visit to the Kingdom last month, although the White House refrained from stating it openly.
(Excerpt) Read more at oilprice.com ...
“100,000 bpd”
Hells bells, my 2019 Jeep Grand Cherokee’s 6.2L Supercharged HEMI V8, uses more than that. LOL.
Wow OPEC coughing up 100,000 barrels while Biden releases 1 million barrels a day from our reserves, mostly for China, to cover his personal debt. When will America wake up? Destruction from within!
Gas prices around here have dropped about 50 cents in the past month. Which is surprising because the Rally is happening now.🤔
Well, it used to be JOE/HUNTER BIDEN, Kerry, Pelosi, Feinstein families. Then they got caught and the Battle for Ukraine began. Now the people and countries they screwed are doing it back to them(and as a result...us).
“who is buying Russian oil at a discount and reselling it?”
India
There was an article about a month back stating that India’s purchases of Russian oil was up substantially because they are buying it at a $30/barrel discount to the Brent Sea Crude spot price. This trade was making India around $27 million dollars/day.
India is refining some of this Russian oil. In other cases they are transferring the crude oil from one tanker to another and then selling it to the countries that have banned import of Russian oil.
Man, you’re really good at that BS. You’d do a lot better spreading that nonsense than what’s her face, black and female Pierre. What the Saudis did is irrelevant.
The proverbial drop in the bucket.
“OPEC currently produces about 30M barrels per day. 100K is an additional 0.3%. It’s a statistical rounding error.”
That’s true.
Last month’s announced increase in quotas was 648,000 BPD - about 1/6th of Russia’s exports, as if they were going to ramp up to meet the EU’s goal of replacing all Russian tanker loads by the end of the year. That seemed like a substantial Program might be underway.
Most analysts seem to believe that there is just not enough slack capacity to totally replace Russian oil exports by the end of the year (~3-3.5 million BPD) - at current levels of demand.
But a recession or a mild mild Winter could really balance supply without Russia.
If, as seems likely, new or spare capacity just can’t possibly make up for all of Russian oil exports this year (at current or increased levels of demand), then it is possible that this month’s small increase might just reflect what is possible to add this month.
Likely, multiple factors have to be balanced.
Oil is not just the Saudi’s big lever with the USA, it is also their big lever with Russia - who is getting further into bed with the Saudi’s arch enemy, Iran. The new combat jets that Russia announced that it would transfer to Iran, will be aimed at Saudi Arabia first and foremost. So there are important, even critical, political considerations involved.
The bulk of the spare capacity that can just be turned on in short order, is in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Not enough to fully replace Russia’s exports right away, but usually enough to swing market prices substantially. In the mid term, a lot of new money is being sunk to develop new non-Russian oil and gas production.
Europe can probably stop taking Russian oil tanker loads by the end of the year, but we will have to see how much of that can come from new non-Russian production, and how much will just be buying someone else’s scheduled deliveries, while they are backfilled with Russian shipments (or other shell games and smuggling).
The expectation is that Russian oil tanker exports will continue to decline marginally due to sanctions, but that total replacement of Russian exports would be a difficult multi-year effort - unless a recession dials back demand (in which case, Russia might conceivably be forced to take the brunt of reductions).
There are a lot of factors that go into Global oil production.
A lot of competing players, a lot of competing considerations and priorities, beyond just maximizing profit.
It can be a slow moving process to really change things, requiring billions of dollars and many years, with high priced consultants working long and hard on competing strategies.
A lot of money is being committed now to develop new non-Russian production, but it will mostly take years to produce,
The Saudis and Emiratis can ramp up the quickest and the mostest in the coming months, if they chose to.
Biden is so stupid he’s clueless how he’s being conned by the climate control stooges they want to end oil use but stop drilling here yet buy from all over the world they are still using oil.
They gave up crude oil for snake oil sales.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.