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Ukraine: military situation update with maps, July 20, 2022
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)

War in Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCP2QApi8G2TKc8NZmeDWSUg/videos

Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).

(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)

••denotes transcribed dialogue.

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Extras:
Giving A-10 Warthogs To Ukraine Isn’t Off The Table
Top U.S. Air Force officials have left the door open to the possibility of transferring some of the iconic Warthogs to Ukraine.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/giving-a-10-warthogs-to-ukraine-isnt-off-the-table

Excerpt:
The aircraft has some sensitive systems that would likely need to be removed prior to such a transfer, as well ... With regards to training demands, “thanks to prior military exchange programs, Ukraine already has a small number of pilots trained to fly the A-10. (Edit: Potential crop dusters 2003, Worst idea ever in March, now a great idea.)

Inside The NATO Alliance’s RQ-4D “Phoenix” Drone Operations
NATO’s high-flying drone operations ramp up as its capabilities have never been in higher demand due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/inside-the-nato-alliances-rq-4d-phoenix-drone-operations

War In Ukraine Pushes Czechs To Buy F-35s
With an eye on the war raging in Ukraine, the Czech Republic looks set to become the next member of the growing European F-35 community.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/war-in-ukraine-pushes-czechs-to-buy-f-35s

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••Ukraine Economy:
Naftogaz, a Ukrainian super corrupt NG company. Asked for US$5B from Ukraine government, because they need to buy 5Bcm of NG from the European market for the winter. This means they assume a price per 1000cm to be US$1000. Right now, the European Spot Market is US$1600-1700 per 1000cm. There is nothing available now for the price the assume, and that price will not come down, but go up.

••Ukraine Debt:
Request to delay payments was granted by their sovereign creditors (The Paris Club). Private lenders (The London Club) have not yet granted their request. Some of these lenders are: Blackrock, Fidelity (asset management), AMA I Capitol, and Gem Stock Capital.

Positive development for Ukrainian economy.

••Internal Ukrainian Economy:
Rent in Kiev fell by 52% since the beginning of the war. Partially a result of 30% depreciation of Ukrainian currency.

••Agricultural Situation:
Winter crops are generally better plants. Yields are expected to be down 15%. Planted hectares fell from 9.1 to 8.4 million hectares. Crop harvest from winter plantings will be down as much as 25%. WiU interpretation is that yields are driven by the farmers to the extent of how much fertilizer the use. Farmers are trying to reduce their risk because of the uncertainties.

The actual crop problems will arise in 2023 if war persists.

••Russia Oil and Gas Production:
10.8M bbls per day now. Has no oil field services technology of its own (no deep drilling, no fracking tech). All of the oil field services that would have been expected to pull out because of the sanctions, haven’t. So production remains the same.

••Russian Oil Sale Rumors:
Bloomberg reported sales of Russian crude dropped by 30% to India and China. China and India are Russia’s number one and two buyers with Saudi Arabia as number 3 buyer. India bought 1M bbls per day while China was 2-3M bbls per day. May have something to do with the Western proposed ceiling of US$30-40 per bbl for Russian crude.

Russian response was to threaten to stop exports. JP Morgan then predicts US$380 bbl oil. The oil industry, when passed through the economy, may account for 50% of the Russian GDP.

••Russian Internal Situation:
Russian Statistics Bureau reported deflation of 0.017%. The trend is what is important: positive inflation fell to negative inflation. Importers are forced to reduce their prices or lose the market.

••HIMARS Attacks & Implications:
An important part of high Command’s strategy. The next attack on the Antonivsky Bridge over the Dnieper River will make it impassable even for light trucks. This reduces the supply of Orc troops, in the western Kherson region, to one road over the dam near Nova Kahoka which is also being attacked to destroy the road itself. No desire to destroy the dam and creating a huge disaster, killing many people - the Orc breach in WWII killed 100,000 civilians and 5,000 Orc troops.

Loss of the dam road will mean a practical encirclement of the Orc troops. The Dnieper is 200-300 meters wide here and not easy to bridge. So the troops would be trapped. A retreat will cost them most, if not all, of their heavy equipment.

Orc troops are in a much more difficult situation than ZSU troops were in Severodonetsk. Dnieper River is the 3rd largest river in Europe and not easily crossed without special equipment, boats, barges. Could be an easy victory by ZSU troops without actually doing much. This situation looks like a nightmare for Russian command.

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Summary: No changes on the frontline.
HIMARS system hit main bridge (Antonivsky) in Kherson again and severely damaged it, so that’s it’s not passable for heavy equipment anymore.
Also HIMARS systems destroyed large Russian ammunition depot in Skadovsk.

Key areas:
- Izyum bridgehead: no changes
- North Donbass area: no changes
- Donetsk West: no changes
- Kherson bridgehead: no changes.

1. Kharkiv: No changes.
••North of Kharkiv: Intense & elevated exchange of fire - trending to more intensity, but not enough troops to attack toward Kiev.

2. Izyum bridgehead. No changes.
••Orc 21st Brigade may have been pulled to north Donbas frontline a while back. Trend is many of the units which operated east of Kiev in Feb-April are returning to the front.

3. North Donbas: No changes.
••Orc 15th Brigade and 24th sfB are now here. Continuing pressure all along the North Donbas front. No advances.

4. West of Donetsk: Avdiyivka and Maryinka. No changes.

5. Vugledar: No changes.

6. Velyka Novosilka - Gulyapole stretch of frontline. No changes.

7. Kherson bridgehead: No changes.
••Orcs claim ZSU is accumulating troops in Davydiv Brid area.
••Antonivsky Bridge is a key to major route from Mykolaiv to Crimea to Mariupol’ and on into Russia.
••Orc troops in danger are the 20th D, 7th AD, 7th MC, 126th B, 205th B, 10th sfB.