“They do not mutate at a constant rate.”
I didn’t say “constant rate”, I said “fairly predictable rate”.
“an actual event is purely random”
Yes, but we’re not talking about one event, we are talking about the generalized, average rate of mutation, which is something that is known, and for a virus family as studied as coronaviruses, it is fairly well known.
“predict that whatever strain proliferates next”
He’s not predicting any particular strain that will proliferate. He’s simply speculating that over a known period of time, in a virus with a fairly well known rate of mutatation, there’s a good chance that ONE of the variants that arises by that time will escape immunity, and I think his prediction is based not on the nature of any particular variant, but based on his belief that the vaccines have done damage to people’s natural immunity. If natural immunity is damaged, and the vaccine-provided immunity is insufficient, then it doesn’t necessarily take a deadlier or more virulent virus to escape immunity. After a certain point, if the body’s natural ability to respond to a new variant is crippled, then ANY new variant that is sufficiently different from what the vaccine might protect against could be very deadly to those with compromised immune systems.
>> Yes, but we’re not talking about one event, we are talking about the generalized, average rate of mutation, which is something that is known, and for a virus family as studied as coronaviruses, it is fairly well known. <<
Actually, no. We don’t care one whit whether a given mutation occurs, but rather whether the mutation that DOES occur leads to something more lethal and THAT’S a singular event.
>> He’s not predicting any particular strain that will proliferate. He’s simply speculating that over a known period of time, in a virus with a fairly well known rate of mutatation, there’s a good chance that ONE of the variants that arises by that time will escape immunity,<<
“Leaky vaccines” are clearly a problem. It’s the notion that he can time when the vaccines will create something killer which is outrageous.
>> and I think his prediction is based not on the nature of any particular variant, but based on his belief that the vaccines have done damage to people’s natural immunity. <<
Now, I see where you’re coming from. You think this is some good guy explaining why the vaccines are bad.