CDC says Fast-spreading COVID-19 subvariants BA.4 and BA.5 now account for more than 7 percent of New England cases

RE: A test on variant type is not done on corpses so you never know which strain killed the person. You can infer the strain by prevalence in the local population

Yes, but how do the authorities conclude that Omicron and subsequently BA.2 and now BA.4 and BA.5 are now X% of Covid infections unless they test for the variant?

For example, this article states that approximately 7% of New England’s Covid cases are BA.4 or BA.5. How do they know that unless they DO test for these subvariants?

Can’t we infer from the number of Covid deaths since the onset of Omicron that it is less lethal than the original Wuhan virus and Delta?

I ask because I notice that we are actually LOOSENING restrictions nowadays instead of tightening them. Doesn’t this imply that the authorities believe that the current predominant strains are less lethal?

How are they able to determine the lethality of a strain unless they test variant types on people that die from Covid? ( also, there’s the issue of dying NOT FROM but WITH Covid, but I’ll set that discussion aside for now ).

RE: A test on variant type is not done on corpses so you never know which strain killed the person. You can infer the strain by prevalence in the local population

Yes, but how do the authorities conclude that Omicron and subsequently BA.2 and now BA.4 and BA.5 are now X% of Covid infections unless they test for the variant?
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Good question. I have never looked into it. I just presumed some random sampling and then extrapolating to the total population from the sample.
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For example, this article states that approximately 7% of New England’s Covid cases are BA.4 or BA.5. How do they know that unless they DO test for these subvariants?

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Sampling. For cases they have the DNA material in the swab. For corpses, maybe not. Depends on how fast they died. Might not bother to test if the blood oxygen is cratering and all symptoms are what they are used to seeing as the descent to death happens.
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Can’t we infer from the number of Covid deaths since the onset of Omicron that it is less lethal than the original Wuhan virus and Delta?

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No. Of course not. The original strain, pre Alpha, pre Delta, Pre Omicron, had zero vax in the global population. And zero infection recovered people. You can’t know anything about anything like that unless all measures being taken are identical on day 1 vs day 600, and ditto population.
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I ask because I notice that we are actually LOOSENING restrictions nowadays instead of tightening them. Doesn’t this imply that the authorities believe that the current predominant strains are less lethal?
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In January, the DNC commissioned a survey asking what they had to do in order to reduce the disaster looming in November. The survey responded one thing above all things — get the virus off the front page and stop being associated with all unpleasant behavior or requirements associated with the virus.

Those people aren’t interested in population safety. They are interested in holding seats. And I’m sure they sit down and think carefully about the morality of this and conclude that the only moral position in life is to prevent Republicans from taking power. That would cost more lives than relaxing Covid measures. They issued orders to agencies and MSM folks accordingly. Get restrictions abandoned and stop reporting anything virus related.

Then Ukraine came along as a Godsend, front page-wise.
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How are they able to determine the lethality of a strain unless they test variant types on people that die from Covid? ( also, there’s the issue of dying NOT FROM but WITH Covid, but I’ll set that discussion aside for now ).

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I have definitely seen studies on relative lethality. The time frames allow it. You can look at cases in September before Delta became completely predominant, count the dead, and then in later September or October, when sampling was showing Delta’s dominance, count the deaths then, too.

The timeframe is so narrow that you’re likely measuring the same vax %, the same vax decline age, all those things because of the narrow time frame.

The studies I have seen said 1) Alpha was far deadlier than original strain and 2) Delta far deadlier than Alpha. I have seen nothing for Omicron vs Delta. Just anecdotal stuff from South Africa.

In my perspective, I don’t need to see Omicron vs Delta. Knowing Delta was worse than original and, indeed, Alpha was worse than original, tells me the hopeful theory that mutations always evolve less deadly is wrong.

Tom Leher: I Got It From Agnes

I think this ought to be the official COVID-19 hysteria theme song.

Tom Lehrer: I Got It From Agnes

Link fixed.

RE: Sampling. For cases they have the DNA material in the swab. For corpses, maybe not. Depends on how fast they died.

I would expect them to specifically test for the variants on those who died BEFORE they died, if only for epidemiological purposes and for determining how serious the disease is.

RE: In January, the DNC commissioned a survey asking what they had to do in order to reduce the disaster looming in November. The survey responded one thing above all things — get the virus off the front page and stop being associated with all unpleasant behavior or requirements associated with the virus.

Yes, but these loosening of restrictions isn’t only occurring in the United States, it is also happening in many countries that had even more restrictions than we have in our country.

RE: I have definitely seen studies on relative lethality. The time frames allow it. You can look at cases in September before Delta became completely predominant, count the dead, and then in later September or October, when sampling was showing Delta’s dominance, count the deaths then, too.

In which case we can replace “Delta” with Omicron and even in the case of Omicron, BA.4 and BA.5 with BA.2 and we should be able to determine relative lethality. Based on personal experience ( I am not vaccinated but have survived Omicron with nary a symptom ) and observations on people around me, I suspect that Omicron is a weaker strain than its predecessors. I do not see hospitals being swamped ( the nurses and doctors that I know tell me that ) where I live and although I DO see lots of infections, I have not seen anyone ( vaxxed or unvaxxed ) hospitalized. I see lots of quick recoveries within a week.

#12 - well done. 😏

We had 3500 dead per day in January/February. Pretty sure Delta had passed by then since it was killing 2000+ per day September and its decline never got low. Headed back up higher via Omicron.

The most determinant parameter on serious and death is age. If you aren’t old you won’t get seriously sick.

You are right about elsewhere loosening. The DNC did actually commission that survey and reacted accordingly. I think rqmts are loosening because death count is low.

I hated and loved writing it...glad you liked it, hope all is will in your corner of the world!

What does the January 6 committee think about Trump and the latest variant?

State Public Health departments are testing a fraction of isolates they receive and extrapolating.

It’s reasonably accurate if they test enough isolates.

That’s what I suspected. Hospitals aren’t paid by the CDC to do comprehensive variant profiling.