Actually even with this decrease they are still up huge from prepandemic but you are generally correct
Yes, when covid first hit lumber futures dropped to $256/m in April of 2020. All the mills were shutting down and we all thought the world was coming to an end.
A month later is was screaming up.
The actual top was $1680/m.
We will not get down to those levels again because the fixed costs for the mills have all gone up. Just like any other company they have to pay $18-20/hour. Plus you NEED to pass a drug test to work in a sawmill. This is increasingly difficult in states were DRUGS are legal. Like WA & OR.
The other factor affecting the market is the war in the Ukraine. This war has killed construction in Europe. One of the largest steel mills and a gypsum mill were destroyed in the Ukraine. It is difficult to build anything without steel and drywall. This has brought construction in Europe to a halt. So, the European sawmills are trying to ship a much higher percentage of lumber her to the USA.