I love the Linux desktop, but that doesn't mean I don't see its problems all too well

The Register ^ | 8 June 2022 | Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols

[ShadowAce]

Recently, The Register's Liam Proven wrote tongue in cheek about the most annoying desktop Linux distros. He inspired me to do another take.

Proven pointed out that Distrowatch currently lists 270 – count 'em – Linux distros. Of course, no one can look at all of those. But, having covered the Linux desktop since the big interface debate was between Bash and zsh rather than GNOME vs KDE, and being the editor-in-chief of a now-departed publication called Linux Desktop, I think I've used more of them than anyone else who also has a life beyond the PC. In short, I love the Linux desktop.

Many Linux desktop distros are great. I've been a big Linux Mint fan for years now. I'm also fond, in no particular order, of Fedora, openSUSE, Ubuntu, and MX Linux. But you know what? That's a problem right there.

We have many excellent Linux desktop distros, which means none of them can gain enough market share to make any real dent in the overall market.

It's been like that since people first started talking about Linux stomping on Windows on the desktop. But dream as we might of a true year of the Linux desktop, it won't happen. As Forrester senior analyst Andrew Hewitt recently pointed out: "Overall, just 1 percent of employees report usage of Linux on their primary laptop used for work. That's compared to 60 percent that still use Windows... It is very unlikely that Linux will overtake Windows as the main operating system."

He's not wrong.

That's not to say that Linux can't be a successful end-user environment. It is. Indeed, you can argue that Linux, not Windows, is the most successful end-user operating system. That's because there are over 3 billion Android phones out there and Android is just a smartphone-specialized Linux distro.

It's not the only Linux hiding in plain sight. Chromebooks, which you'll find in every school in the land, and in my travel bag, are everywhere. Chrome OS is simply Chrome reworked as a web browser and interface on top of Linux.

Add it all up and you can say with a straight face that Linux has actually long been the most popular end-user OS of all.

But that's not what Linux desktop fans want. They want Windows crushed and bleeding underneath the Linux juggernaut.

Sorry. That's not happening. Linus Torvalds already told us why we'll never see a classic Linux desktop on every PC: fragmentation.

Think about it. Besides over 200 distros, there are 21 different desktop interfaces and over half-a-dozen different major ways to install software such as the Debian Package Management System (DPKG), Red Hat Package Manager (RPM), Pacman, Zypper, and all too many others. Then there are all the newer containerized ways to install programs including Flatpak, Snap, and AppImage.

I can barely keep them all straight and that's part of my job! How can you expect ordinary users to make sense of it all? You can't.

None of the major Linux distributors – Canonical, Red Hat, and SUSE – really care about the Linux desktop. Sure, they have them. They're also major desktop influencers. But their cash comes from servers, containers, the cloud, and the Internet of Things (IoT). The desktop? Please. We should just be glad they spend as many resources as they do on them.

Now, all this said, I don't want you to get the impression that I don't think the conventional Linux desktop is important. I do. In fact, I think it's critical.

Microsoft, you see, is abandoning the traditional PC-based desktop. Oh, Windows isn't going away, but it is moving. In its crystal ball, Microsoft sees Azure-based Desktop-as-a-Service (DaaS) as its future. Sure, Windows users will still see what looks like a PC on their desk, but really it will just be a smart terminal hooked into a Windows 365 Cloud PC. The real computing smarts will be in the cloud.

That means that the future of a true desktop operating system will lie in the hands of Apple with macOS and us with Linux. As someone who remembers the transition from centrally controlled mainframes and minicomputers to individually empowered PCs, I do not want to return to a world where all power belongs to Microsoft or any other company.

The Linux desktop will never be as big as Windows once was. Between DaaS's rise and the fall of the desktop to smartphones, it can't be. But it may yet, by default, become the most popular true conventional desktop.

So will 2028 be the year of the Linux desktop? What do you think? ®

[ShadowAce]

[Dr. Sivana]

Personally, I don’t see the 200+ distros as a problem. Business has already settled on SuSE, Red Hat and maybe Ubuntu. More importantly, a lot of software is running on Linux in the Data Center even if it is being fed to a Windows front end on the users’ laptops.

My biggest problem with Linux for an end-user is application software. Base is awful, and there will never be a desktop version of Claris’ Filemaker Pro (there is a server version, NOT the same thing).

[Reno89519]

I have a friend that was an early adopter and big fan of Linux. Years ago he admitted it was too much to keep up with and other than servers, he switched to Windows.

[libh8er]

There are Mac like desktops available for Linux. My Ubuntu desktop looks just like a Mac - I switch seamlessly between my real Mac and my faux Mac.

[rockrr]

When I was working I had access to wireless broadband cards and accounts. Every time there was a new Ubuntu or Mint (along with a number of other distros) I would load it onto a spare machine in the hopes that they had added broadband support.

Each time I would see that they hadn’t and I would walk away disappointed. Oh, they would claim that it would work but what they offered was a convoluted kludgy mess.

I have since learned how to tether my phone to my laptop for on the road internet access. It’s not as efficient as the internal broadband cards but gets me there.

My chief complaint about Linux machines remains working with Windows machines on a home network. It isn’t as seamless as working Windows to Windows.

[Dalberg-Acton]

My favorite is Linux Mint Cinnamon.
I can do everything I need with the Linux applications found in the Software Manager.
I’m never going back to Windows.

[Dr. Sivana]

Years ago he admitted it was too much to keep up with and other than servers, he switched to Windows.

If "years ago" means Windows XP era, he may be changing his tune as Microsoft is making it clear that they are in control of your Windows computer, and will dictate upgrades, interfaces, and will eventually make it impossible NOT to have a Microsoft account.

Years ago, there were privacy concerns as Intel was putting unique identifiers on 486 processors. They had to make it so the "feature" could be turned off. Compared to what we have going on now, that is nothing.

Microsoft taking over my machine made me move over to Ubuntu but I still need dual boot because of FileMaker Pro and a few other applications. But I am 90% there.

[grwcfl537]

Which desktop are you using?

[z3n]

I have found that Linux has a lot of nice software available, but when it comes to running 3rd party applications, games, and software, it’s often not supported (written for Linux).

In fact, I could be wrong, but it seemed like 5 or 10 years ago you saw Linux install versions for many games and apps more than today.

Is that because it’s difficult to write software to support all the distros, or simply because it looks like the future promise of a Linux hay day has come and gone?

[VeniVidiVici]

I was thinking this very same thing just the other day.

I’m thinking about getting back into IT. While I’ve not run Linux in a production environment, I was a Windows guy, what distros should I concentrate on in preparation? I mean I’ve run numerous ones at home and have 5 or 6 installed in VMs but I’d like to just concentrate on a couple.

All the different package managers alone cause me to just go ugh!

[ShadowAce]

...what distros should I concentrate on in preparation?

Red Hat is the biggest market out there. Oracle Linux (a RH clone), and Ubuntu see to be in demand as well, but not as much as Red Hat.

[Tell It Right]

The lack of centralization is part of the charm of Linux. Everybody likes having their own flavor. So that means no one distro will be dominant like Windows is.

You can't have it both ways.

[bobbo666]

Anyone who turns vital data over to a 3rd party is a dunce, a fool. It is bad enough that banking crappola is funneled thru 3rd party payment agents, data transfer, etc. This is hard to dodge.
But, putting vital info on a cloud (i.e., simply a server owned by another party, serviced by another, connected to by another, etc) is like leaving the door of your shop or home unlocked but watched over by some ...... “security” outfit. Yeah, on a $$ perspective it might make sense. But, when the “security” company decides to decrease costs by not bothering to vet their door-watchers, do you feel safe?
Cloud is marketing jazz. Poor performance, poor reliability, the very worst security. And, if M$ is involved, just set fire to your cash.

[Boogieman]

“Windows users will still see what looks like a PC on their desk, but really it will just be a smart terminal hooked into a Windows 365 Cloud PC.”

This is only feasible for business users, and really only for non-resource intensive business applications. Home users that want to be able to play a modern video game, or stream hi def video, or record music, etc, will not upgrade to some “Desktop as a Service” nonsense, since it won’t meet their needs. It will be the Windows 8 upgrade debacle all over again, and once MS realizes that nobody wants the product they are pushing, after stomping their feet for a while, they will compromise and back down, again.

[daniel1212]

"That's not to say that Linux can't be a successful end-user environment. It is. Indeed, you can argue that Linux, not Windows, is the most successful end-user operating system. That's because there are over 3 billion Android phones out there and Android is just a smartphone-specialized Linux distro."

(You have read this before but for others) that is because Linux is the kernel, and Android is a customized version of an OS. Both Windows and any Linux distro need (well, they certainly can use) much customization, certainly including Windows 11! But despite the hype of Linux advocates (many of whom uncritically defend it), thus is simply far easier under Windows. mainly due to to the great expanse of sound freeware for it.

For Windows 11 this includes,

Explorer Patcher restores the Windows 11 taskbar to be exactly like Windows 10

Then, Classic Shell

And then, 7+ Taskbar Tweaker

Plus, Ultimate Windows Tweaker 5 for Windows 11

And, Right-Click Extender 2.0

There is more, but in most Linux distros I cannot even right click on an icon and find to go the location source. And usually such lack even a true extensive equivalent to Windows Device manager.

My Windows 11 desktop:

[srmanuel]

For people who are computer savvy, Linux is probably a good thing with a ton of options and not limited to Microsoft.

However, based on my experience, Linux in the hands of a novice or new user is far more than they can handle and probably should be on windows, the main reason is if you get in trouble, a ton of people exist than help you, with linux not so much.

[who_would_fardels_bear]

I use a proprietary Linux desktop to create Python programs using proprietary libraries optimized to my personal eccentricities.

Only I can run my Python programs, and they can only be run on my machine!

Ha ha!

Says the smug holier-than-thou programmer.

[fuzzylogic]

Interesting reading all the comments.

I’ve tried using various distros over the years, mainly for software development (device drivers, Android OS builds). It’s certainly light years ahead of where it used to be. However, the lack of a governing body for a desktop experience (aka system libraries & middleware) leaves it without a common direction and is, therefore, undesirable for commercial SW companies to develop desktop SW for it.

Unless you have the deep pockets, like Google, where you can define an entire standardized ecosystem for applications AND get it into enough hands to give it critical mass I don’t see Linux ever dominating as a “Linux desktop”. You will only have the Android’s and Chromebooks of the world.

One mans opinion.

[Dalberg-Acton]

20 years ago you had to futz around to get Linux to run smoothly. Now it works out of the box with just about any hardware out there.
Windows is now like that, as evidenced by all the add-ons you’ve shown to make it usable.