This is high stakes gambling. The cost of getting it wrong will be horrendous. Bogging down Russia in Ukraine is hedging our bets. It’s terrible for the Ukrainians but losing will be as well. Their country will slowly die, especially if they lose their coastline. It’s a terrible situation. But as long as Ukraine is willing to do the heavy lifting, then the West profits by having the fight there instead of further west.
What we don’t know is the state of the rest of the Russian Federation. Perhaps they will begin to break apart. It may be that the Russians at the front will break as the individual soldiers must be poorly motivated knowing that if they were contractors, they’d at least get decent pay. Russia is offering to make Ukrainians who surrender rich. That must piss off the Russian soldiers as well.
There are a lot of unknowns and unknowable’s. But the longer the conflict goes on the weaker Russia gets.
Here is an interesting take on how the rot in Russia may affect their chances of victory.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9i47sgi-V4
> This is high stakes gambling. The cost of getting it wrong will be horrendous. <
Excellent comment. France and the UK got it wrong when they got involved in the Serbian crisis of 1914. By not staying out of it, they helped spark WW 1.
France and the UK got it wrong again when they DIDN’T get involved during Hitler’s 1936 occupation of the Rhineland. By staying out of it, they helped spark WW 2.
As you noted, making the wrong decision can be disastrous. I just wish Trump were calling the shots here instead of that fool Biden.