I certainly appreciate your view! There may well be an inexorable sweep of events that individual actions are lost within, or only a part. History will certainly write it that way.
I am curious, however, that you see no end to conflict. During Trump’s Presidency, European nations were eagerly buying all of the energy they could from Russia, and at rock-bottom prices, thanks to Trump.
I see peaceful commerce as the only alternative to war. I think other, more powerful, forces must, too, as Trump was so obviously hobbled in this area from bringing real reform.
I will finish with my own current conclusion that the Biden administration is, in no way, in opposition to what Russia is doing in the Ukraine. So, I hope that this is not the opportunity you describe, as there is no one to take advantage of it.
I think that as long as someone like Trump was in charge Europe felt safe in dealing with the devil. I doubt that the bureaucracies deep inside the German or Polish states felt that Putin was safe. But as long as Putin cowered from the two am mean tweet, they felt they could deal with him. Then, along came Biden. Suddenly, Putin felt he could do anything he wanted. The same thing happened under Obama.
Much of this problem had its foundation laid by Merkel, who failed to create the infrastructure to resist Russian pressure. I can’t blame them for buying from the cheapest supplier, but any idiot could see they were paying for the Russian military and eventually, that would end badly. The Greens in Germany have done more to destabilize Europe by doing away with power plants and going solar/wind than anything. Probably the greens are completely subsidized by the one person who benefitted most by their actions: Putin.
I saw a cartoon. Merkel is shaking Putin’s hand. She says, “I’ve spent my entire career uniting Europe.” Putin says, “Here. Hold my beer.”