Posted on 05/27/2022 8:30:19 AM PDT by Signalman
On Thursday, Cook Political Report updated their predictions, and the situation is looking even better for Republicans to win back control of the U.S. House of Representatives come the November midterm elections. Cook Political Report had already forecast that the GOP would win back control late last December.
Part of the revision included a change of prediction in 12 seats, 10 of which favor Republicans.
When it comes to seats in Republicans' favor, perhaps most notably is how Rep. Susan Wild's (D-PA) seat has been moved from Toss Up to Lean Republican. Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV) and Rep. Kurt Schrader's seat, the Biden-endorsed incumbent who lost his primary, have also been moved from Lean Democratic to Toss Up.
Many other Democrats have also been downgraded in their chances. Reps. Greg Stanton (AZ), Mike Levin (CA), and Jahana Hayes (CT) went from Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic. Rep. Joe Courtney (CT) was also downgraded from Solid Democratic to Likely Democratic.
Then there were Republicans whose ratings were upgraded, including Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (PA) and Scott Perry (PA), who went from Likely Republican to Solid Republican. The vacant seat in Minnesota's 1st District, which was held by Rep. Jim Hagedorn before he died, also went from Likely Republican to Solid Republican.
Rep. Young Kim (R-CA)'s seat was moved from Likely Republican to Lean Republican, though. Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-IL)'s seat was also upgraded from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic.
Republicans are now on track to gain 20-35 seats, when they only need 5 to take back the majority.
As a matter of historical trends, the president's party almost always loses seats during his first midterm election, and the situation is looking pretty grim for President Joe Biden, who already has particularly poor poll ratings. In fact, he keeps reaching some of his lowest poll numbers, across a variety of polls. Republicans also have an advantage in many generic ballot polls.
According to an average from RealClearPolitics (RCP) from May 2 to May 26, Biden has an approval rating of 40.4 percent, and a disapproval rating of 54.8 percent. RCP also has Republicans with an advantage of 46.1 percent compared to Democrats having a 43.9 percent advantage on the generic ballot for Congress.
Hahahaahahahah - just wait until the Cook County machine gets rolling
if the gop can’t flip 5 or 6 house seats to win back control, there is no hope left for the country. Given the total disaster that Biden and the Media-Dem Party have inflicted on the country, i.e., largest land invasion in history, 107,000 drug deaths, skyrocketing crime, $4.50 a gallon gas, 10 percent inflation, the GOP should be able to win 50 or 60 or more seats in the house and pick up several senate seats.
But, will the GOP establishment be smart enough to push this stuff in a huge air war for the mid-terms or are they going to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
McConnell has already started the push to lessen the GOP’s chances of large gains in the mid-terms. He has fallen for the “bi-partisan push for gun control” that the media is calling for on behalf of the left.
The GOPe is so afraid of being in the majority and having to government according to their campaign promises that I wouldn’t doubt they deliberately torpedo their chances. You see, Trump showed them it COULD be done. Conservative policies COULD be implemented, the border COULD be closed, and gas and oil prices COULD be lowered by governmental policy.
Will McCarthy be rejected by newly seated people, and if so, will that plus a core be enough to select a different Speaker.
The GOPe is so afraid of being in the majority and having to government according to their campaign promises that I wouldn’t doubt they deliberately torpedo their chances.
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They don’t want to lead.
Will McCarthy be rejected by newly seated people
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Not a chance. Frank Luntz would be upset.
Right you are. As a governing majority, the only thing the gop will have on its side is the law. Insisting that laws be enforced properly — at the border, on crime, on everything the democrats undermine by not enforcing or by weaponizing — could position them as the party of the Rule of Law, which polls say people still support. But that would take courage and actually using the power of the purse, and the gop does not have courage and has never used that power.
So what if the GOP wins, most are just Assistant Democrats.
Young Kim. Interesting. We need more Koreans to run. They take no $hit. Just look at how their merchants respond when there’s an attempted robbery.
With the GOP talking up gun control and amnesty, it appears they do not want to win.
145 House GOP voted for Liz Cheney in Feb 2021, in order to get new leadership most of them would have to be replaced and it doesn’t look like that is happening.
35 seats would be a disappointment.
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