North Dakota Perspective on 2022 Farming Forecast:
2022 AGRICULTURE OUTLOOK
Weather and markets
https://www.ndliving.com/content/2022-agriculture-outlook
Excerpt:
......MARKETS
Despite concerns and further opportunities for disruption in the global ag economy, Olson sees some positive signaling in the market as we enter the start of the 2022 growing season in North Dakota. Strong crop prices top that list.
“Since about the first of the year, we’ve had a pretty nice rally for corn, beans and canola,” Olson says. “We should have very strong crop prices, for old crop in the bin and new crop planted this spring.”
Frayne Olson regularly presents on the ag economy as a crops economist/market specialist with North Dakota State University.
Those prices are indicative of the drought in South America, specifically in Brazil and Argentina, Olson says. Farmers there begin the early soybean harvest in February, and March is their primary soybean harvesting month. Early yields show the soybean harvest isn’t as strong as expected.
On top of lower yields in South America, international buyers have returned to the United States.
“With that combination, we’re seeing prices rebound, and some very high prices, as good, if not better, than what we had last year,” Olson says.
While corn and soybeans are trending positively, wheat has been struggling. Part of the reason for that is the inverse relationship between U.S. corn and wheat in the market. When corn prices are low, the wheat market is less affected. When corn prices are high, however, livestock producers look for other, cheaper feed sources, like wheat. U.S. wheat is used for milling, so to avoid it going to feed livestock, it must be priced higher than other wheat in the market, Olson explains.
“We have to export about 50% of our wheat, but the problem is that there is cheaper wheat internationally in the market, so they don’t buy from the United States,” Olson says. “As corn prices come up, we are pricing ourselves out of the global market for wheat.”
One major world disruption is closely being watched by ag economists everywhere – Russia-Ukraine relations and the potential for war there.
Russia is the largest wheat exporter. Ukraine is the third largest wheat exporter and fourth largest corn exporter.
“The big question is will that disrupt trade flows, and will that cause wheat prices to suddenly increase,” Olson says.
Olson is watching two things – how aggressive the action could or will be and how long it lasts.
“If it flares up and stays for six months or more, then all bets are off,” he says.
AG CONCERNS FOR 2022
As farmers and ranchers begin this season in agriculture, Olson shares his top concerns.
Prices. While prices start the 2022 growing season in a good place, Olson is concerned that prices will drop as summer passes. Current prices include a “risk premium for all of this uncertainty going on in the globe,” and “profit margins could look very different by the time we get to harvest than what it does today,” he warns.
Some producers opt for pre-production contractual arrangements, which offer a guaranteed market price to mitigate some of the uncertainty that exists in the market. While there are certainly pros and cons to this strategy, Olson thinks 2022 is one of the years where these contracts will pay off.
Inflation, high input costs and supply chain. With rising inflation and high input costs, namely for machinery, fertilizer and chemicals, it could be harder for producers to make things work. While still possible to pencil out a strong bottom line in the current ag economy, Olson is concerned these higher prices will last throughout the summer and possibly into 2023.
Agriculture is also not exempt from the supply chain issues facing the global marketplace. The U.S. farmer competes with the farmer in Brazil, China, Russia and India for fertilizer supplies, which is now a global commodity, Olson says. Natural gas is also needed for fertilizer. On top of the rising costs of natural gas, it is caught in the matrix of supply chain issues. And with the difficulty in securing new farm equipment, partly because of disruptions in the manufacturing sectors of other countries, the value of used equipment continues to rise.
Higher interest rates. “As we get inflation in our economy, usually the response is that interest rates go up,” Olson says. The Federal Reserve has announced it will look at rate increases, which will translate into higher interest rates for producers when they borrow money.
Olson says the key will be a slow and gradual interest rate increase, which farmers and ranchers can adjust, rather than a quick jump in interest rates.
A WORLD ECONOMY
In the United States, agriculture, food and related industries contributed $1.109 trillion to the U.S. gross domestic product in 2019, a 5.2% share, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service. Of that share, about 0.6%, or $136.1 billion, was direct output by America’s farms.
If you count acres, corn and soybeans are the top crops, with 90 million acres of corn and just under 90 million acres of soybeans. Wheat is the third in terms of acreage, with 46 to 47 million acres of wheat, Olson says. But if you count bushels, corn is king.
“The United States is very blessed to have a lot of productive farmland,” Olson says. “From a food security standpoint, we’ve been self-sufficient for a very long time. So efficient, in fact, we produce way more than we can consume.”
Because of this, the global market has been a godsend for U.S. agriculture. For example, one recent trend that has influenced the market, Olson says, is a shift from a vegetable-based diet to more animal proteins. Which country can supply the additional feed grains to support this shift? The United States.
“There’s good things happening, but there’s definitely some clouds on the horizon that I’m watching,” Olson says.
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