Posted on 04/12/2022 11:30:05 AM PDT by Mount Athos
A poll commissioned by Must Read Alaska over the weekend shows that Sarah Palin has both a chance of winning the race for Congress, but also has a high negative factor and could hand the race to the leading candidate supported by Alaska Democrats — Al Gross.
With campaigns eager to make claims to voters during this hurry-up special election season, Must Read Alaska has invested in ground-truthing what Alaskans are really thinking about concerning those on the ballot. The results were surprising:
The survey asked questions of 955 likely 2022 primary voters, such as: “Of several possible candidates in the 2022 election for Congress, if the election were held today, for whom would you vote?” The response was:
Sarah Palin: 31% Al Gross: 26% Nick Begich: 21% Christopher Constant: 7% Josh Revak: 3% Tara Sweeney: 2% Another candidate not listed: 4% Undecided: 6% This result contradicts a poll advertised by candidate Gross in his fundraising push to his national audience, which says Palin has 42%, Gross has 40%, and 18% are undecided.
The MRAK poll was conducted by a major national polling firm, Remington Research Strategies, which has a B rating from FiveThirtyEight.com for accuracy. It is the first known major poll to be conducted in Alaska in the race to replace the late Congressman Don Young, since his death on March 18.
Between April 7-9, surveyors asked likely primary voters in Juneau, Anchorage, and Fairbanks a series of questions about some of the more well-known names on the primary ballot.
There will be 48 names on the primary ballot; only those considered most viable for the general election ballot were included in the poll. This survey did not dive into the ranked choice voting methodology that Alaskans will use in August and in November. (The first ballot voters will face, which must be postmarked by June 11, is a “pick one” election with the top four heading to the August special election ballot.)
When asked their favorable/unfavorable opinion about Republican Sarah Palin:
37% said their opinion was favorable. 51% said they have an unfavorable opinion of Palin. 12% had no opinion of the former Alaska governor. When asked their opinion about Republican Nick Begich:
28% were favorable. 30% were unfavorable. 42% had no opinion. The same question was asked about Republican Josh Revak. Responses were:
8% were favorable. 29% were unfavorable. 63% had no opinion. Democrat-backed candidate Al Gross, who ran for Senate in 2020 against Sen. Dan Sullivan, drew these responses:
32% favorable. 51% unfavorable. 17% with no opinion. The unfavorables for Palin and Gross were identical at 51%. The favorables for Gross were smaller than those for Palin — 32% for Gross vs. 37% for Palin. The name recognition for Palin and her role as a lightning rod led to only 12% having no opinion on the favorability question.
Participants were asked if an endorsement from the family of the late Congressman Young was important to them: “In the upcoming special election to fill Don Young’s seat, are you more likely if less likely to vote for a candidate that claims to have the backing of Don Young’s family?” The answer shows that for many, it’s not going to make a difference in their decision:
20% were more likely to support the candidate. 28% were less likely. 52% said it made no difference to them. The polling on Palin shows the former governor can’t lean on former President Donald Trump’s endorsement for support without risk. When asked, “Are you more likely or less likely to support Sarah Palin if you know that Donald Trump supports her candidacy?” the overall result was:
29% were more likely to vote for Palin. 48% were less likely. 23% said it made no difference to them. By region the breakdown shows the former governor cannot use Trump without losing support:
Juneau: 16% said a Trump endorsement would make them more likely to vote for Palin, while 73% of respondents said the Trump endorsement would make them less likely to vote for Palin.
Fairbanks: 38% said a Trump endorsement would make them more likely to vote Palin, while 33% said it it would make them less likely.
Anchorage: 30% said a Trump endorsement would make them more likely to vote for Palin, while 45% said the Trump endorsement would make them less likely.
The respondents were self-described as:
46% Conservative. 29% Moderate. 22% Liberal. 3% Not sure. The poll demographics:
Anchorage (Southcentral): 71%
Fairbanks: 14%
Juneau: 15%
Republican: 38%
Democrat: 29%
Very conservative: 27%
Somewhat conservative: 25%
Moderate: 25%
Progressive: 23%
Female: 53%
Male: 47%
Remington Research Group of Missouri typically works for conservative clients. Its parent company is owned by Axiom Strategies, which has signed a contract to work with Nick Begich this campaign cycle, and which worked on the Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson campaign in 2021 and the successful gubernatorial campaign of Gov. Glenn Youngkin of Virginia. This poll was a combination of phone, online, and text survey, and the pollsters say the confidence rate has a 3.1 margin of error, with 95% level of confidence. The Anchorage numbers for the poll include people on the Kenai Peninsula and the Mat-Su.
Alaskans are choosing a new member of Congress after the death of Congressman Young. The special placeholder election for a temporary House member takes place during a June 11 primary that has 48 people on the ballot, and an Aug. 16 general election, which is a ranked choice voting (rank your favorites, 1 through 4) ballot. The winner of that will be sworn in as a member of Congress until the regular election is completed in November. The November winner will have to get 51 percent of the vote on a ranked choice ballot.
Palin wins in a walk.
Surveyed 955 AK voters... Isn’t that half the state?
She’ll win them back over. Begich name is familiar to democrats. We need her to distract our enemies on the left. She’ll put herself out there and take the arrows.
Take the time to read the comments. It could be enlightening for you.
Lots of folks here in AK do not care for her.
In the end, we’ll see whose Outside money bought the election.
About 3/4.
First of all, what kind of stupid-ass wokester bullshit expression is “ground-truthing”?
Always remember that Alaska has Rigged Choice Voting (RCV) now. It’s not sufficient in a general election for the leader (Palin) to have something like 43% in a 4-way race. If it’s less than 50% — and it will be — it’s not over, and that’s where RCV kicks in. The same thing applies in November.
It will come down to the people who voted for Begich, who is a good candidate himself but totally overshadowed now, and who their #2 choice is. The media wet dream is that the Begich supporters hate Palin as much as they themselves do, and therefore will place the ultra-liberal Commie candidate (Gross) as their #2 choice and by doing so will hand the election to him. This is how Rigged Choice Voting greatly helps Democrats, even in an allegedly Republican state like Alaska. That’s why Democrats want to implement RCV NATIONWIDE.
Therefore the media’s mission, which they will gleefully undertake from now through August, is to try to drive Palin’s “negatives” through the roof. They don’t need to boost Gross much at all (though they surely will do so), just make sure that a substantial portion of the electorate hates Sarah.
Begich claims to be a Republican, and likely is, but his whole family are Democrats.
His grandfather (a Democrat) held the seat before Don Young.
And his uncle was US Senator Mark Begich, elected in 2008 and defeated in 2014.
So he’ll have a lot of Democrat “voices in his ear” so to speak.
If the Demonrats have to drive 100,000 illegal aliens to vote in Alaska, they will do it to stop Sarah Palin from being in Congress.
To get into Congress, it only requires voters in that district.
This is why Pelosi never ran for the Senate.
“Rigged Choice Voting” worked in Maine.
If you’re referring to Susan Collins getting re-elected: that wasn’t much of a 4-way race like Alaska will be, and Rigged Choice Voting favors a moderate squish (Collins) as opposed to a solid conservative (Palin).
OTOH if you’re referring to Republican Bruce Poliquin getting ousted by a Democrat in 2018 even though Poliquin would have won WITHOUT Rigged Choice Voting: then yes, it worked very well — just as the Democrats intended.
Palin needs to run some ads to increase her positives. She already has the name ID.
I assume you mean the House (”Congress” is both the House and the Senate).
Alaska has only one House seat - so it is entirely the same constituency for them as a Senate seat.
Susan Collins got over 50% in a three way race. The third candidate was a minor factor.
Alaska has a jungle primary for the top 4 candidates who then run in a rank choice race so Sarah only needs to come in 4th for the primary. She then needs most of the first or second rank votes in the general election which will happen on the same day as the primary for general election. It will be very complicated. They should have forgone having the interim election.
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