Posted on 04/02/2022 12:38:31 PM PDT by marcusmaximus
Perhaps Putin sees a window of opportunity here in which he can hold on to DPR, an expanded LPR and the Crimea as well as get a “neutral” status for Ukraine before the battlefield turns against him again.
Right now Putin is probably at his strongest militarily, absent a full mobilization of Russian society for war.
He is pounding the Ukrainian positions along the LOC in the east, and in two or three weeks unless something changes will probably have completed the taking of Mariupol.
But he doesn’t have any more effective military units in reserve to throw into battle beyond the forces he is repositioning from the north of Ukraine into the Donbass front.
The forces he is succeeding with now in the Donbass are doing so with artillery, which is the strongest arm of the Russian military.
But once the loitering munitions from the US arrive on the battlefield in large numbers, Putin’s advantage from artillery goes away.
Just as the javelins and NLaws and other portable anti-tank missiles have devastated his tank forces, these loitering munitions will devastate his artillery capability.
Indeed, it is probably the effectiveness of the Bayraktar drones that Ukraine was using before the invasion in LPR and DPR that partly convinced Putin to invade when he did - these drones along with other improved capabilities by the Ukrainian military raised the prospect that Ukraine might successfully retake the Russian-separatist occupied parts of Donetsk and Luhansk.
Also, experts have estimated that Putin is using up his stocks of precision-guided munitions. It will take months and months to replenish them if at all possible in the face of sanctions blocking access to sophisticated electronic components.
So now, perhaps Putin can negotiate something that allows him to spin a victory - Ukrainian neutrality plus Donbass plus Crimea plus perhaps even the Sea of Azov coast.
If he waits to accept a deal and the battlefield turns against him as it did in the north of Ukraine, then he may be left at the end with only occupied Crimea.
Hey Owen, if my aunt had balls she’d have been my uncle. At least when I was a kid, anyway.
I think proust was being sardonic.
Nations don't pay reparations unless they're defeated. And Russia isn't defeated until Ukraine occupies Russia. Until then, it's a stalemate at best.
Putin's going to demand those two eastern regions (don't ask me to spell them), both of which are majority ethnic Russian. Putin can't go home empty-handed. He needs to be able to claim a victory, to say it was all worth it.
Zelensky will say no. And it looks like he's even holding out for Crimea.
I don't see how they can be close to a peace agreement. At best, a cease fire, but without specific terms.
Correct, but my point still remains.
And the opposite as well. If Russia loses in Kyiv and is getting their butts kicked by a smaller army, there’d be people on FR claiming Putin is winning.
Maybe. It would mean the DoD budget could be cut by 75%.
Yeah, I missed that.
LOOK OUT FOR PUTIN’S POISON
According to this, Ukrainians are poisoning the invaders. They really are pulling out all of the stops to save their homes.
https://twitter.com/HromadskeRadio/status/1510291110760955917?cxt=HHwWmoCyxe3w0PUpAAAA
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