Afghanistan II
I believe the stinger missile and the other variants has a lot to do with why Russia doesn’t control the skies. You can’t outrun a Mach 3 missile in a helicopter and Su25. The hand held missile systems are an equivalent to the introduction to the longbow in mid evil times. During that period, heavy Calvary was the capital offensive weapon. Armor, broadswords, and spears were the weapons to be feared. It took years to become a knight and lots of money, and support pages.
The longbow erased that in an instant. Same analogy here. Multimillion dollar helicopters, jet aircraft, tanks, and armored vehicles destroyed by infantry with a $40k missile. Putin has another Afghanistan on his hands, only in spades and on his western border that he alone is responsible.
He will never be able to fully pull out. The flip side of the coin is his economy will be in ruins by sanctions. Aeroflot will eventually be grounded by no spare parts. He will be forced to ground more aircraft for spare parts. Aeroflot will soon to be called aeroflop.
The effectiveness of manpads is particularly low nowadays due to the modern electronic countermeasures.
As long as the West continues to supply Ukraine he will, which leads to your other comment:
"He will never be able to fully pull out. The flip side of the coin is his economy will be in ruins by sanctions. Aeroflot will eventually be grounded by no spare parts. He will be forced to ground more aircraft for spare parts. Aeroflot will soon to be called aeroflop."
I would have added that the economic realities will lead to social upheaval. In reality he's in a war with three fronts.
Can he survive? We'll see....
I agree. As long as the West can supply anti-tank and manpads by the thousands, Russian forces are dead meat.