Russian personel losses look like they are two or three to one compared to Ukranian losses. Armored vehicle losses look to be bigger.
Russians can throw in more troops but they are cannon fodder. They don’t have that many seasoned troops.
Ukrainians have plenty of arms and now some of the best tech in the world.
Right now time is against the Russians. Why? Ukrainians have shown they are willing to let their whole country be destroyed if that’s what it takes to win this war. I don’t think they are willing to cede territory in order to gain peace. The sanctions hammer will come down on the Russians this summer. Then we’ll see if the Russians are willing to let their country go down the drain to win this war. right now, that’s an unknown.
In the absence of full mobilization by the Russians, the troop balances will swing in favor of the Ukrainians.
Russian invaders are an expeditionary force and that is grinding them down. On the Kyiv front many Ukrainian soldiers commute home at night and sleep in their own beds, get some sugar from their female companions, etc.
I’d question the “plenty of arms”. Large quantities of arms that can bleed the Russians (man-portable Anti-tank and low altitude Anti-aircraft missiles) have been promised, but there have been serious issues with logistics and bureaucratic delays. A couple of the Pubbie Senators were complaining about this vociferously after Zelenskyy’s address to Congress. Admittedly, you can’t just send over Javelins by FedEx, but, bureaucracies run on “process” and usually find it difficult to impossible to get out of their own way.
Then there are logistics issues that should have been worked out months ago, likely exacerbated by the Ukrainians themselves not believing Putin would massively invade.
I also note that the small arms that would be needed by “citizen soldiers”, per the last “package” that I saw from Administration sources, were in ridiculously small quantities, such as 5000 rifles, 400 shotguns, etc., IIRC. WTH? Just to arm the civilian-no-more defenders in Kiev, Ukraine probably needs 2 million rifles.
Another thing I’ve not seen, unless added in the last day or so, are modern SAM’s that can hit targets 10,000 - 30,000 ft. up.