that brings up a deeper question.
are we sending arms in order for the Ukrainians to win—which will take time and cause incredible disruption around the world. Its already doing so. As well, it will further impoverish americans via inflation. as well for more impoverished countries like egypt that depend on ukranian wheat—high wheat prices will starve them and make them refugees—bound for places like europe and america.
or are we sending arms in order to strengthen ukranians so they can negotiate on better terms with the russians. terms which may include some land for peace —ie them giving up claim to say crimea or the donbas region.
Ukranians have shown that they are willing to have their country destroyed—if that’s what it takes to win.
its not so clear right now to either americans or russians that they are willing to have their countries destroyed in order for the ukranians to win.
for the last week or more—the US has urged the ukranians to come to the peace table to make a deal. The ukranians so far, are uninterested. they want to win.
IMO, that question may depend on whether a long term view is sought. If Russia is not severely beaten back, this crap is gonna just keep on happening. It takes a LOT to change centuries old patterns. I suspect Zelenskyy and co. have figured this out.
Now, it MAY be that a settlement which includes no NATO for Ukraine (meaningless as that actually is*), some minor increase in autonomy for Crimea and very limited portions of Donbas, hefty UN troops in Donbas, and some formal (but, again, essentially meaningless) declaration of official Ukrainian repudiation of “Nazis”, could be worked out. Putin lies about everything else - he could declare victory for home consumption.
*The “NATO threat” is a phony front. Too many NATO countries oppose Ukraine entering NATO for it to happen. Putin knows that. But, a “NATO threat” makes a pretty good lie to spit out there for ignorant people, people kept ignorant, fools, and tools.
Based on relative economic productivity and flexibility, America will be hurt far less than Russia. It is also true that the US has far less tolerance for economic damage than does Russia. But how I think that resolves is that if this goes on until November, the Dems will suffer truly catastrophic losses, and energy policies will be reversed by veto-proof votes in Congress. (Would Congress simultaneously toss out Biden AND Harris? Hmmm...) The US could come out with minimal long term damage. Europe and some of those poorer countries have a much tougher road ahead. For those poorer countries, if this doesn’t end quickly, the food shortage dice may have already been rolled. For Europe it’s mostly the “energy” dice. How faat can Nuke reactors be brought back online, and how much gas do they really have in storage? How fast can alternate LNG come on line? Germany thinks it can replace 1/3 of its imports from Russia with US supplied LNG fairly quickly. That’s a good start.
Europe may be at max capacity for refugees soon, just from Ukraine. That’s going to be a big problem. I’m guessing they’ll be forced to refuse surges from the ME and Africa. And... How would Egyptians, say, too poor to buy food, get to the US southern border?