Yours is a well-reasoned point of view. Ukraine is getting a lot of help, but not enough and not of the nature really needed to help them defeat Russia. So I believe Ukraine will fall to Russia eventually because they can’t withstand this kind of pounding indefinitely. What happens after that is anyone’s guess. Only Putin knows, and even he might not know yet. It depends on several factors after Ukraine is wrapped up.
I would say that, if he were to literally take over Ukraine, it would put him in an awfully tempting position to roll up the Baltic States