Posted on 03/19/2022 9:27:32 AM PDT by marcusmaximus
Judging by the words of Russia’s chief negotiator, Vladimir Medinsky, a second topic has emerged in Russian-Ukrainian peace talks: the issue of sanctions against Russia (and their lifting). This both complicates the issue and the peace process and gives it a chance
On the upside, a situation in which Russia needs something creates new opportunities. Before, Russia was choosing where to stop based on events on the ground. Now that decision is also being determined by the chance to get some sanctions lifted in exchange for an agreement.
Neutral status for Ukraine and restrictions on the volume and types of weapons to be held by the Ukrainian army with external guarantees could probably be agreed in exchange for peace and the lifting of some sanctions relatively quickly.
Moscow may also be ready to drop its demand for immediate regime change: this was always expressed ambiguously and was likely meant in the event of the current political leadership collapsing, which hasn’t happened.
That leaves on the table Moscow’s demand that Ukraine recognize Crimea and the Donbas republics as part of Russia. Russia will clearly try to extend its control to all of the contested Donetsk and Luhansk regions while the talks are ongoing.
Ukraine now has two negotiating positions. The first is the recognition of Crimea and the Donbas, which it does not want to give way on.
The second is the lifting of sanctions, which it is, in theory, prepared to compromise on, especially if means less pressure on the issue of recognition (for which there are in theory several options: deferred status, the “Irish option”, a future referendum).
Russia also has two negotiating positions: the position of its troops on the ground, and its ability to inflict further damage on Ukraine without sustaining any damage to its own territory (excluding sanctions of course)
The problem with sanctions is that they mean a third party imperceptibly appears in the peace talks. The source of the main sanctions is not Ukraine: it can only recommend that Western countries lift sanctions in exchange for certain conditions achieved to bring about peace.
Ukraine may even find it has to persuade countries to revoke their sanctions against Russia. And those conditions now may be formulated taking into account that the lifting of sanctions could become part of the conflict’s resolution.
Russians standing in long lines in Saratov today in an attempt to panic-buy sugar.
Via @visegrad24
https://twitter.com/AlexandruC4/status/1505198364811534339
This should be very obvious and is another sign that, contrary to our western media, the Ruskies are winning big time.
While the Ukes may not be able to enter into an agreement to remove sanctions, they didn’t enter into an agreement to impose sanctions, either. It is easy to see a straight line to those who did impose sanctions to be forced to lift them.
More video: Russian panic buying sugar
https://twitter.com/Mike_Eckel/status/1504397511099830284
https://twitter.com/Mike_Eckel/status/1504397911580413959
“the Ruskies are winning big time.”
Plis more winning.
We’ll lift sanctions just as soon as Russia withdraws and pays reparations and fixes all the damage.
I wonder how far Russia’s $600 billion in frozen reserves would go to fixing the damage.
Maybe we should hold out until Russia de-militarizes, de-nukelifies, and de-nazifies and all war criminals have been tried.
But the reality is that the sanctions will simply evaporate once the shooting starts because sanctions, like a chain, are only as strong as the weakest link and too many nations will put commerce over security, especially when security is not obviously and imminently at stake.
The Russians are working around the sanctions by trading with their BRICS partners. When all that Russian fertilizer and oil are supporting Russian, Chinese and Indian food production not Kansas wheat fields, we’ll see who’s clamoring for relief from the sanctions resultant $10 loaves of bread in Kansas City.
” the issue of sanctions against Russia (and their lifting)”
Whoa! What’s up with that? We were told by Team Pooty over and over that the sanctions would not have all real effect, they weakened the West instead and strengthened Russia and China, they would collapse the dollar giving Russia and China a big win, yap, yap, yap.
Does Putin and his negotiators know all that? Apparently not.
So the sanctions are going to be worse off for the US and not your guys? You better email this critical info to Putin ASAP before he makes another huge screw up.
“Russia withdraws and pays reparations... Russia de-militarizes, de-nukeifies, and de-nazifies and all war criminals have been tried.”
That would be justice.
Just watched the move The Punisher. Line he says in the movie is “There is justice, and then there is punishment”, implying he was not interested in justice, but only to inflict punishment on the bad guys.
Them losing with great loses is the punishment part.
I saw one estimate (no idea how credible) that perhaps 40 million Russians could be driven into poverty by the sanctions, in a matter of months.
But perhaps only the Oligarchs and State Security people matter in Russia anymore.
The ruble and the price of oil seem to have stabilized over the last week. The UAE said they would increase oil production, which stopped the surge in price - now hovering around $105/bbl.
Maybe China has helped stabilize the ruble (now around 105 to the dollar). There was a report of a surge of Chinese accounts in Russian banks. It is probably a wise time for them to buy Russian assets (and influence), at fire sale prices.
Lots of moving pieces and uncertainty moving forward...
Russia is supposed to open up their stock market on Monday for the first time in 3 weeks. If it happens, I would assume a deal has been made between Russia and China for financial support for the Russian equities.
If the Russians are smart they won’t negotiate that as part of this deal.
“Russia withdraws and pays reparations... Russia de-militarizes, de-nukeifies, and de-nazifies and all war criminals have been tried.”
That would be justice....
And that is not going to happen.
Putin will sell every drop of his oil at a 20% discount on $115+ oil (a huge windfall for Russia). China will buy its oil from Russia at market price minus 20%. And who will pay for ALL of this? American neocons pumping $5+ gas and their countrymen, the other victims of your neocon dipshitery.
Well you better tell your boy Pooty that ASAP. That dumb a@@ thinks the sanctions are bad for him and is trying to get out of them.
” would assume a deal has been made between Russia and China for financial support for the Russian equities.”
If anybody can print a mountain of new money overnight, it is the Chinese Communists. Just add zeros...
The reality is that the terms of any peace agreement will reflect the respective leverage of the two parties. Whichever side is more desperate to achieve an agreement will get the worse end of it. That’s life and justice will have very little to do with it.
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