Posted on 03/19/2022 9:27:32 AM PDT by marcusmaximus
Judging by the words of Russia’s chief negotiator, Vladimir Medinsky, a second topic has emerged in Russian-Ukrainian peace talks: the issue of sanctions against Russia (and their lifting). This both complicates the issue and the peace process and gives it a chance
On the upside, a situation in which Russia needs something creates new opportunities. Before, Russia was choosing where to stop based on events on the ground. Now that decision is also being determined by the chance to get some sanctions lifted in exchange for an agreement.
Neutral status for Ukraine and restrictions on the volume and types of weapons to be held by the Ukrainian army with external guarantees could probably be agreed in exchange for peace and the lifting of some sanctions relatively quickly.
Moscow may also be ready to drop its demand for immediate regime change: this was always expressed ambiguously and was likely meant in the event of the current political leadership collapsing, which hasn’t happened.
That leaves on the table Moscow’s demand that Ukraine recognize Crimea and the Donbas republics as part of Russia. Russia will clearly try to extend its control to all of the contested Donetsk and Luhansk regions while the talks are ongoing.
Ukraine now has two negotiating positions. The first is the recognition of Crimea and the Donbas, which it does not want to give way on.
The second is the lifting of sanctions, which it is, in theory, prepared to compromise on, especially if means less pressure on the issue of recognition (for which there are in theory several options: deferred status, the “Irish option”, a future referendum).
Russia also has two negotiating positions: the position of its troops on the ground, and its ability to inflict further damage on Ukraine without sustaining any damage to its own territory (excluding sanctions of course)
The problem with sanctions is that they mean a third party imperceptibly appears in the peace talks. The source of the main sanctions is not Ukraine: it can only recommend that Western countries lift sanctions in exchange for certain conditions achieved to bring about peace.
Ukraine may even find it has to persuade countries to revoke their sanctions against Russia. And those conditions now may be formulated taking into account that the lifting of sanctions could become part of the conflict’s resolution.
“that is not going to happen.”
I don’t think so either.
But they should be denied rewards for aggression, and punished somehow. Frozen assets in the West could be used for reparations (but Russia will probably want them back in peace negotiations).
Things will shift over the next two weeks, we will have to see how it goes. The Russians might consolidate Mariupol and head North to cut off the large Ukrainian forces in the Donbas. Alternatively, their offensive might remain stalled, while casualties mount.
Some analysts anticipate the Russian offensive culminating over the next week or two, due to supply constraints and losses. If so, Russian negotiating positions will have to soften.
I was somewhat vested in this conflict as my father was from Kiev. The Soviets wreaked havoc across the Union, fearing tribalism they often coercively mixed populations of religions and ethnicity. So Russian cultured Kiev is no more, as I have had contact with relatives and former residents. My father passed in the fall, I’m happy he didn’t have to see this. He never once referred to himself as Ukrainian, only Russian and his family had been in Kiev since the 1600’s, coming from both Poland, Russia and Germany. These people all assimilated as Russians. Kievan Rus is where Russia historically evolved.
Heres the thing, I do understand why Russia and the Russians hold Kiev sacrosanct to their historic mythos, but again... that Kiev is long gone. I do hope this conflict ends, and we go back to the norm detente.
I know your media handlers would not dare put this into your trough, but Putin, the Chinese and Indians have already blown up most of the sanctions. Of course, your illegitimate thug bosses in the White House, you know the scum you’re carrying water for, will make the sanctions hit hard. Hit hard right here at our gas pumps. You neocons don’t have feet left to shoot you’ve shot yourselves there so often.
“When all that Russian fertilizer and oil are supporting Russian, Chinese and Indian food production not Kansas wheat fields, we’ll see who’s clamoring for relief from the sanctions resultant $10 loaves of bread in Kansas City”
Very good point. But, look, Xiden has told you and me that “we” need to sacrifice for the comedy clown Zelensky.
My question is, just who is “we?”
Is Nancy Pelosi “we” with her $100K ice-cream fridge, or Xiden who is transported by our tax dollars in every move he makes and as he heads to his beach house every weekend or the Hollywood elites who make a gazillion dollars a year and lecture us incessantly?
How about that working Joe or Jane six-pack who have to pay $100 to top off their gas tank or the independent truck driver that now spends $1000 to fill up his diesel truck?
Has anyone asked the other part of “we” if they are willing to pay that for a bunch of thugs and clowns? I don’t think so!
Do you know the oil market is fungible? Russia is getting a 20% income cut on each barrel. It’s like a criminal having to sell stolen merchandise way cheaper to the neighborhood fences. They get effected way more than America.
I had guy tell me “we” need to go into Ukraine now. More of that “we” BS. He means send innocent American boys off to be butchered for his Bushite wet dreams. There is absolutely nothing preventing him from going, making some Molotov cocktails and taking out a Russian tank column. Easy, peasy.
Oil price on 2/1/22 $88 barrel Putin nets $88 barrel
Xi pays $88 barrel
Oil price after neocon sanctions $110 Putin nets 80% or $88 barrel!
Xi Pays net $88
US gas prices $4.50 gallon.
Find someone to explain those figures to you.
How many contracts of crude oil have you traded in your lifetime? I’m betting zero.
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