“I dare say the Russians might have already ‘won’ by taking over the Russian speaking areas. It’s as simple as that.”
But they pretty much already had them as a result of the Russian invasion of 2014 (fought largely by Russian proxies).
This thing will end in some kind of compromise, wherein Russia will get to keep Crimea and LPR and DPR gain “independence,” at which time they will be annexed by Russia. Ukraine will agree to not pursue NATO membership, which is really no concession by Ukraine because Ukraine was likely never going to be accepted into NATO anyway. Russia has to withdraw all its forces from Ukraine. Ukraine will not have to demilitarize.
Russian forces are slowed and stalled, then redeployed and stalled again. It’s a disaster that is obvious to any military person.
This writer is lowering the bar for Russia, but the fact is that there is no way out of this. No end game at all, where the Ukrainians, don’t start an insurgency for all Russian forcees that stay.