Back in January, Russia rejected U.S. proposals that would permit Ukraine only a limited form of NATO membership(if Ukraine was in fact ever admitted), with no missiles and only a limited troop presence. After the invasion, Russia said that Ukraine had to have strict neutrality, and could not enter into alliances with anyone in the West, either bilaterally or multilateral my. It also demanded regime change and "denazification" of Ukraine.
Russia has since abandoned both of those demands. They have now announced they are not requiring regime change, and that Ukraine can have other bilateral/multilateral alliances as long as it isn't NATO.
That's a much bigger concession by Russia than is Ukraine giving up the prospect of "NATO" membership at some point in the indefinite future. If Ukraine can get enter into a self-defense pact with other European countries and the U.S. as long as it isn't called "NATO", that gives them what they wanted anyway.
If Russia is making concessions in its negotiating position, why should anyone conclude Ukraine is about to be wiped out?